Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean import cost has been showing a weak trend recently, and the domestic soybean meal market is expected to enter a destocking phase in September, which will support the oil mill's profit margin. The soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate within a range, waiting for a driving force to choose a direction [2][4] - The central price of oils and fats is supported by factors such as low inventories of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asia, the draft of the US biodiesel policy boosting soybean oil demand, the limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and the expected decrease in exportable volume due to the growing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia. Oils and fats are in a state of balanced or slightly loose current supply and demand, with a tight expected supply. They are expected to show a moderately strong upward trend in the medium term [6][8] - Due to the high import volume in August and the significant year - on - year increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in August, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price is expected to continue to decline in the long - term, but there may be a short - term rebound [10][11] - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price is affected by the Fed's interest rate cut and the complex fundamentals of supply and demand. In the short term, the cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate [13][14] - The egg price is expected to mostly decline, with a few remaining stable. The supply is still large, but there are factors limiting the decline of the spot and futures prices. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short - term long positions in the far - month contracts when there is a significant increase in positions after a decline [16][18] - The pig price is expected to be stable or decline. The supply in September is still bearish, but there are potential supporting factors. The futures market has already priced in the high supply, so it is not cost - effective to short - sell excessively. It is advisable to pay attention to the possibility of a rebound at a low level and short - sell after the rebound [20][21] Summary by Related Catalogs Protein Meal Market Information - On Thursday, the US soybean price slightly declined, maintaining a range - bound trend. The domestic soybean meal spot price dropped by 10 yuan/ton, with the East China basis remaining unchanged at 01 - 110. The domestic soybean meal trading volume was decent, and the提货 volume was at a high level. Last week, the downstream inventory days increased by 0.42 days to 9.22 days. According to MYSTEEL statistics, 2.36 million tons of soybeans were crushed last week, and 2.38 million tons are expected to be crushed this week. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories were almost unchanged from the previous week and were at a high level compared to the same period in recent years [2] - The rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas is normal in the next two weeks. Although the soybean good - quality rate declined in August due to drought, the USDA only lowered the yield per acre by 0.1 bushels and increased the harvest area by 200,000 acres. In Brazil, the premium has started to decline recently. Overall, the cost of imported soybeans is supported by the low valuation of US soybeans, Sino - US trade relations, and the trading during the Brazilian planting season, but it also faces pressure from the global oversupply of protein raw materials, the potential continuous expansion of the planting area in Brazil, and the short - term oversupply if Sino - US relations ease [2] Strategy Viewpoint - The cost of imported soybeans has been weak recently. It is necessary to pay attention to its performance after stabilizing. The domestic soybean meal market has a high level of提货, and it is expected that the spot market will enter a destocking phase in September, which will support the oil mill's profit margin. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the improvement of the US soybean market situation and the trading during the Brazilian planting season can marginally improve the current situation of oversupply. Regarding the profit margin, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the high level of提货 can be maintained. The soybean meal market should be operated within a range, waiting for a driving force to choose a direction [4] Oils and Fats Market Information - According to a Malaysian independent inspection agency, the export of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 1.2% - 8.43% from September 1 - 10, and increased by 2.6% in the first 15 days. SPPOMA data shows that the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 3.17% from September 1 - 10 compared to the same period last month and decreased by 8.05% in the first 15 days [6] - According to customs data, China imported 340,000 tons of palm oil in August, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%. From January to August, the total palm oil import was 1.59 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.8%. The import of soybean oil was 100,000 tons in August, a year - on - year increase of 113.9%; from January to August, the total soybean oil import was 190,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.6%. The import of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 140,000 tons in August, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%; from January to August, the total import was 1.45 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.1% [6] - On Thursday, the prices of the three major domestic oils and fats declined. The export data of Malaysian palm oil in the first 15 days of September was weak, and foreign investors reduced their long positions in oils and fats on Thursday. The domestic spot basis was stable at a low level [6] Strategy Viewpoint - The central price of oils and fats is supported by factors such as low inventories of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asia, the draft of the US biodiesel policy boosting soybean oil demand, the limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and the expected decrease in exportable volume due to the growing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia. Oils and fats are in a state of balanced or slightly loose current supply and demand, with a tight expected supply. They are expected to show a moderately strong upward trend in the medium term. Currently, the valuation is relatively high. It is recommended to observe high - frequency data and adopt a buying strategy after a decline and stabilization [8] Sugar Market Information - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price dropped significantly with an increase in positions. The closing price of the January contract was 5,474 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton or 0.99% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the quotation of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,850 - 5,930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 - 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; the quotation of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5,720 - 5,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation of processing sugar mills was in the range of 5,950 - 6,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The basis between the Guangxi spot price and the main Zhengzhou sugar contract (sr2601) was 376 yuan/ton [10] - According to the latest UNICA data, in the second half of August, the total sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 50.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.68%; the sugar production was 3.87 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.21%. According to customs data, in August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 62,700 tons compared to the same period last year. From January to August, the total sugar import was 2.612 million tons, an increase of 121,000 tons [10] Strategy Viewpoint - Affected by the record - high import volume in August and the significant year - on - year increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in August, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price broke through the support level and declined. The long - term view on the sugar price remains bearish. However, due to the abnormal increase in positions and trading volume in the short term, there may be a short - term rebound. It is recommended to trade with caution [11] Cotton Market Information - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price dropped with an increase in positions. The closing price of the January contract was 13,765 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton or 0.9% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,319 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis between the CCIndex 3128B and the main Zhengzhou cotton contract (CF2601) was 1,554 yuan/ton [13] - According to customs data, in August 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 80,000 tons compared to the same period last year. From January to August, the total cotton import was 590,000 tons, a decrease of 2.05 million tons [13] Strategy Viewpoint - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points as expected, but due to the overly dovish expectations before, the prices of commodities and stocks declined after the interest rate cut, dragging down the Zhengzhou cotton futures price. Fundamentally, the cotton market has entered the peak consumption season of "Golden September and Silver October", and the operating rate of the downstream industry chain has gradually increased, but it is still lower than the same period in previous years. On the other hand, there is no new supply at present, and the domestic cotton inventory is at a historical low level, but there is an expectation of increased production in the long term. The long and short factors are intertwined. From the perspective of the futures price, it rebounded and then dropped in the short term, facing significant selling pressure, but there is also certain support at the lower level. The cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [14] Eggs Market Information - The egg prices across the country were partially stable and partially declined. The average price of eggs in the main production areas dropped by 0.04 yuan to 3.71 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan dropped by 0.1 yuan to 3.5 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao dropped by 0.11 yuan to 3.42 yuan/jin. The supply was normal, but downstream buyers were cautious about future risks and had a cautious attitude towards purchasing. The sales volume slowed down. It is expected that the egg prices will mostly decline and a few will remain stable today [16][17] Strategy Viewpoint - The supply base is still large, and there is a large accumulation of cold - stored eggs. After a short - term increase, the spot price is still expected to decline. However, after the large - scale culling of laying hens, the supply pressure has decreased marginally, and the storage conditions have improved after the temperature drop. If the spot price does not decline as expected, it may trigger reverse stocking, which will limit the decline of the spot and futures prices due to short - covering. It is recommended to wait and see. When there is a significant increase in positions after a decline, short - term long positions in the far - month contracts can be considered [18] Pigs Market Information - The domestic pig price declined more rapidly yesterday. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.19 yuan to 12.85 yuan/kg, the average price in Sichuan dropped by 0.1 yuan to 12.54 yuan/kg, and the average price in Guangxi dropped by 0.2 yuan to 12.02 yuan/kg. The demand was average, showing no obvious improvement. Some farmers in certain regions were reluctant to sell at low prices and had a strong attitude of supporting the price, which provided some support for the pig price. It is expected that the pig price will be stable or decline today [20] Strategy Viewpoint - The theoretical and planned slaughter volume is large, and the supply in September is still bearish. However, there are potential supporting factors such as consumption, weight gain, and state reserve purchases. The spot price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, lacking the basis for a significant increase or decrease. The futures market has already priced in the high supply, especially in the near - month contracts, which have declined continuously and are at a discount to the spot price. It is not cost - effective to short - sell excessively. It is advisable to pay attention to the possibility of a rebound at a low level due to factors such as policies and consumption, and short - sell after the rebound. The reverse spread strategy for the far - month contracts should be continued [21]
五矿期货农产品早报：农产品早报2025-09-19-20250919
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-09-19 00:39