研究所晨会观点精萃-20250919

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the Fed announced an expected interest rate cut, the US initial jobless claims dropped significantly, the US dollar index and Treasury yields rebounded, and global risk appetite increased. Domestically, economic data was lower than expected, but short - term external risk uncertainty decreased and domestic easing expectations increased, leading to an overall rise in domestic risk appetite. The market is focused on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening [3]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks and precious metals may be short - term bullish, while bonds, black metals, non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals are expected to be short - term volatile [3]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Global Situation: The Fed cut interest rates as expected but hinted at no rapid cuts in the coming months. The US initial jobless claims had the largest decline in nearly four years, causing the US dollar index and Treasury yields to rebound sharply, and global risk appetite to increase [3]. - Domestic Situation: China's August consumption, January - August investment, and industrial added value growth were all lower than previous values and market expectations, with domestic demand continuing to slow down. The Ministry of Commerce and other nine departments issued policies to expand service consumption. Domestic risk appetite increased due to reduced external risk uncertainty and increased domestic easing expectations [3]. - Asset Suggestions: Stocks are expected to be volatile in the short term, with a short - term cautious long - position recommendation. Bonds are also expected to be volatile, with a cautious wait - and - see approach. Among commodities, black, non - ferrous, and energy - chemical sectors are expected to be volatile, with a cautious wait - and - see stance; precious metals are expected to be strongly volatile at high levels, with a cautious long - position recommendation [3]. Stock Index - Market Performance: The domestic stock market declined due to the drag of precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and securities sectors. - Fundamentals: China's economic data was lower than expected, with domestic demand slowing down. Policy support was provided by measures to expand service consumption. Short - term external risk uncertainty decreased, and domestic risk appetite increased. The market is focused on domestic incremental policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening. Short - term cautious long - position is recommended [4]. Black Metals - Steel: The domestic steel futures and spot markets rose and then fell on Thursday, with low trading volume. After the Fed's interest rate cut, some funds left the market. Demand improved slightly but varied by variety, with rebar consumption rising and hot - rolled coil consumption falling. Supply decreased slightly. The market is expected to be range - bound in the short term [6]. - Iron Ore: The futures and spot prices of iron ore declined slightly on Thursday. There were rumors of production restrictions, and the increase in molten iron production was limited. Supply remained high, and port inventories decreased slightly. The price is expected to be range - bound [6]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Thursday, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. The supply of silicon manganese increased slightly, and the price of silicon iron was supported by electricity costs and other factors. The market is expected to be range - bound [7]. - Soda Ash: The main contract of soda ash declined from a high on Thursday. Supply increased, and the pattern of oversupply remained. Demand was stable but weak. The price is expected to be bearish in the long - term, with short - term policy and news risks [8]. - Glass: The main contract of glass declined from a high on Thursday. Supply was stable, and demand growth was limited. The market is expected to be range - bound in the short term [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: The Fed's interest rate cut in September boosted copper prices, along with tax policy impacts and a copper mine accident in Indonesia. However, the upside is limited due to the slowdown of the US economy [9]. - Aluminum: After the Fed's interest rate cut, aluminum prices fell but were supported above the 20 - day moving average. The recent price increase was due to interest rate cut expectations and the spill - over effect of copper price increases, but the fundamentals are weak, with increasing inventories and limited demand recovery [9]. - Aluminum Alloy: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and production costs are rising. Demand is weak due to the off - season. The price is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term but with limited upside [10]. - Tin: The combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased significantly due to maintenance and tight ore supply, but it is expected to recover. Demand is weak. The price is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term but with upside pressure [10]. - Lithium Carbonate: The main contract of lithium carbonate declined on Thursday. Supply and demand both increased, and inventories decreased. The market is expected to be slightly bullish, with attention to the upper pressure range [11]. - Industrial Silicon: The main contract of industrial silicon declined on Thursday. With polysilicon and coking coal at high levels, it is expected to be slightly bullish [11]. - Polysilicon: The main contract of polysilicon declined on Thursday. Spot prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells increased, and policy expectations remained strong. It is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term [12]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: President Trump's remarks weakened market confidence in sanctions against Russia, and the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut on market sentiment was limited. The price is expected to be supported and range - bound, with market focus on sanctions and geopolitics [13]. - Asphalt: After a slight decline in oil prices, asphalt rebounded and stabilized. The upside is limited, and it may be range - bound at a low level due to potential inventory accumulation and falling oil prices [14]. - PX: The PX price was stable, and the previous positive factors were mostly priced in. The PXN spread decreased slightly, and it is expected to be range - bound, waiting for changes in PTA devices [14]. - PTA: Downstream开工率 remained at 91.4%, with limited terminal demand recovery. PTA processing fees were squeezed, and it is expected to be range - bound in the short term [15]. - Ethylene Glycol: It remained stable and volatile, but downstream demand was weak. With potential new device production and limited export orders, it is expected to be weakly volatile [15]. - Short - Fiber: It followed the polyester sector and rebounded slightly. Terminal orders increased seasonally, but the upside is limited [15]. - Methanol: The port price declined, and the inventory increased. Although the fundamentals improved marginally, it is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [15]. - PP: The market price declined. Production decreased due to maintenance, and downstream demand improved, but supply remained abundant. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [16]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The CBOT November soybean contract declined. US soybean export sales were better than expected, but crop ratings were falling, and the final yield estimate may be adjusted downward. The market maintains a cautious optimistic attitude [17]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The domestic short - term supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged. It is expected that the supply - demand situation will improve in late September and October, and the price center of gravity may rise [18]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Oil: The CBOT November soybean oil contract declined. Domestic soybean crushing is high, and soybean oil supply is sufficient. Canola oil inventories are decreasing, and the market sentiment is strong during the seasonal sales peak [18]. - Palm Oil: The decline of Chicago soybean oil and international crude oil futures will drag down the Malaysian palm oil market. Domestic demand is weakening, and inventories are increasing. Although there are concerns about production in Malaysia, the upside is limited [19]. - Corn: The prices in the northern ports and Northeast production areas rebounded slightly, while the prices of new corn in North China continued to decline but at a slower pace. New grain is expected to be listed in large quantities from mid - October to November, with a downward price expectation. The futures contract has strong support [19]. - Hogs: Pig prices reached a new low this year. Supply is abundant, and demand is stable. The rebound space in late September is limited [20].