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原油:测试支撑,各类多配轻仓持有
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-19 01:12

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the international crude oil market, including price movements, regional product and crude oil spreads, refining margins, other key spreads, and key market news. It suggests holding various long positions in crude oil lightly while testing support levels [1]. 3. Section Summaries Regional Product Spreads - Gasoline: The Atlantic Basin gasoline arbitrage window is slightly open, but the Mediterranean - New York, and Asia - Mexico routes are closed due to high costs and supply - demand situations [2]. - Diesel: The US Gulf - Western/Northern Europe and Arabian Gulf - Mediterranean routes are open, while others like Arabian Gulf - Northwest Europe are closed [2]. - Aviation Fuel: The Arabian Gulf - Mediterranean route is barely open, while most other routes are closed [2]. - Fuel Oil: All major routes are closed, with price differentials and high costs making arbitrage unfeasible [2]. - Naphtha: The US Gulf - Japan route is open, while others like Arabian Gulf - Japan are closed [4]. Regional Crude Oil Spreads - USGC: Most Middle - Eastern and Colombian crude oil routes to USGC are closed, while some routes to USAC and NWE have open or closed status based on price advantages and market conditions [4]. - Singapore: The Bonny Light to Singapore route is open, while the Murban to Singapore route is closed [4]. Refining Margins - USGC: Both cracking and coking margins are strong, with coking of Urals showing high profitability [5]. - USAC: Refinery margins are leading, benefiting from complex configurations and tight product supply [5]. - Northwest Europe: Margins have reached a new high for the year, driven by tight diesel supply [5]. - Singapore: Margins are stable, supported by recovering jet fuel demand and gasoline export opportunities [5]. Other Key Spreads - WTI - Brent: Brent maintains a premium over WTI, reflecting strong US exports and tight European supply [6]. - RBOB - WTI Crack: Gasoline crack spreads are at historical highs, supported by refinery maintenance and low inventories [6]. - 3:2:1 Crack Spread: The comprehensive crack spread is extremely strong, indicating high overall refinery processing profits [6]. Key Market News - ExxonMobil: Plans to double LNG sales by 2030 and invest in oil production in Guyana and the Permian Basin [6]. - Trump: Calls for further oil price reduction to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict [6]. - Macron: Announces the restoration of UN sanctions on Iran [6]. - EU: Is formulating measures to accelerate the phasing - out of Russian gas imports [7]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of crude oil is 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly positive view within the [-2, 2] range [8].