尿素早评：做多机会或逐步到来-20250919

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Recommend paying attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain level of cost - effectiveness, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and the valuation being cheap. There are two potential upward drivers for urea prices: expected supply - side renovation of old facilities (about 20% of urea facilities are over 20 years old and the current comprehensive operating rate is close to 80% with limited idle capacity), and expected improvement in demand - side exports (optimistic about urea exports from September to October due to the easing of Sino - Indian relations). Therefore, the space for further decline of urea is limited [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices: UR01 closed at 1670 yuan/ton on September 18, down 11 yuan or 0.65% from September 17; UR05 closed at 1734 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or 0.52%; UR09 closed at 1755 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.57% [1]. - Domestic spot prices (small - particle): Shandong was 1650 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.61%; Shanxi was 1530 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.65%; Henan was 1660 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.60%; Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 84 yuan/ton on September 18, down 1 yuan from September 17. The spread of 01 - 05 was - 53 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream cost: The anthracite price in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream prices: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2930 yuan/ton and 2520 yuan/ton respectively; the price of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5083 yuan/ton and 5200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1681 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1681 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1662 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1670 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1671 yuan/ton. The 2601 position was 286,823 lots [1]. Trading Strategy - Focus on the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract [1].