宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025年9月19日）-20250919

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term trends of major agricultural futures in the commodity market, including soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil, are mainly in a state of shock, with a short - term weakening tendency [5][8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - View: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "shock - weakening" [5][7]. - Core Logic: The expectation of improved Sino - US trade may falsify the long - term supply gap. The domestic soybean market trading logic revolves around the weak industrial chain, with oil mills facing inventory pressure and a continuous negative basis pattern for soybean meal. Also, factors such as import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operation rhythm, and stocking demand affect its price [5][7]. Soybean Oil (Y) - View: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "shock - weakening" [8][7]. - Core Logic: The EPA's biofuel proposal has high uncertainty within 45 days. The past actions of President Trump and the impact of Sino - US trade prospects on the soybean market also affect soybean oil. Additionally, factors like US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory play roles [8][7]. Palm Oil (P) - View: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "shock - weakening" [9][7]. - Core Logic: Although rainfall in East Malaysia may disrupt supply in the short - term and export data is stable, the peak production season in the producing areas restricts upward movement. Indonesia's biodiesel technology breakthrough may strengthen long - term demand support. In the domestic market, import profit is inverted, near - month arrivals are high, downstream demand is limited, and inventory is increasing [9].