Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Fed's monetary policy easing is less than market expectations, cooling the sentiment. For copper, overseas copper mines have some disturbances, and the domestic downstream is in the traditional peak season, with limited supply surplus pressure. Short - term copper prices may turn to a volatile trend [4]. - Aluminium prices were affected by the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, with long - position profit - taking. The downstream is in the traditional consumption peak season, the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation of domestic aluminium ingots is not large, and the support for aluminium prices remains relatively strong. Short - term aluminium prices may be volatile [7]. - After the Fed's interest rate cut, the monetary policy statement was less dovish than expected, putting short - term pressure on precious metals and non - ferrous metals. For lead, the short - term supply and demand situation is good, and it is expected to run strongly in the short term [9]. - For zinc, the zinc concentrate TC increase may slow down, and the degree of zinc ore surplus will ease. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory is still in the inventory accumulation trend. It is expected that the short - term zinc price will run weakly [11]. - For tin, the short - term supply decline is obvious, and the demand side improves marginally. It is expected that tin prices will be mainly volatile [13]. - For nickel, the short - term nickel price may be affected by inventory pressure, but in the medium - to - long term, it has certain support. It is recommended to go long on dips [16]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply and demand are booming during the lithium - battery peak season, and the inventory continues to improve. It is expected that lithium prices will be mainly volatile [19]. - For alumina, the short - term ore price has support, but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [23]. - For stainless steel, the futures market is under pressure, and the Fed's interest rate cut has limited immediate boosting effect. It is expected that stainless steel prices will remain volatile [26]. - For cast aluminium alloy, the downstream is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the cost support is strong. It is expected that the short - term price will continue to run at a high level [29]. Summary by Metal Copper Market Information - LME copper closed down 0.28% at $9946/ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 79700 yuan/ton. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the market sentiment was cautious. LME copper inventory decreased by 900 to 148875 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons [3]. Strategy - The Fed's monetary policy is less loose than expected, and overseas copper mines have some disturbances. The domestic downstream is in the traditional peak season, and the short - term copper price may turn to a volatile trend [4]. Aluminium Market Information - LME aluminium closed up 0.58% at $2705/ton, and SHFE aluminium's main contract closed at 20800 yuan/ton. The Fed's stance was less dovish than expected, leading to long - position profit - taking. The SHFE aluminium weighted contract's open interest decreased by 5.4 to 53.5 million hands, and the social inventory of aluminium ingots increased slightly [6]. Strategy - The downstream is in the traditional consumption peak season, and the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation of domestic aluminium ingots is not large. The support for aluminium prices remains relatively strong, and SHFE aluminium should focus on the 20700 - point support [7]. Lead Market Information - SHFE lead index closed up 0.30% at 17157 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased to 5.96 million tons, and the LME lead inventory was 22.54 million tons [8]. Strategy - After the Fed's interest rate cut, the monetary policy statement was less dovish than expected, putting short - term pressure on precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The short - term supply and demand situation of lead is good, and it is expected to run strongly in the short term [9]. Zinc Market Information - SHFE zinc index closed down 1.08% at 22051 yuan/ton. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory is still in the inventory accumulation trend, and the LME zinc ingot inventory continues to decrease [10]. Strategy - The zinc concentrate TC increase may slow down, and the degree of zinc ore surplus will ease. It is expected that the short - term zinc price will run weakly [11]. Tin Market Information - SHFE tin's main contract fell 1.26% to 267840 yuan/ton. The supply decline is obvious, and the demand side is improving marginally. The domestic tin ingot social inventory increased slightly [12]. Strategy - The short - term supply decline is obvious, and the demand side improves marginally. It is expected that tin prices will be mainly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [13]. Nickel Market Information - SHFE nickel's main contract fell 0.70 to 120800 yuan/ton. The spot market transaction did not improve significantly. The cost side has limited downward space, and the demand for nickel - iron is supported [14]. Strategy - The short - term nickel price may be affected by inventory pressure, but in the medium - to - long term, it has certain support. It is recommended to go long on dips, with the short - term price range of SHFE nickel's main contract at 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel's 3M contract at 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC spot index was stable, and the LC2511 contract closed down 1.03%. The domestic production reached a record high, and the inventory decreased slightly, with tight available spot [18]. Strategy - The supply and demand are booming during the lithium - battery peak season, and the inventory continues to improve. The bottom support of lithium carbonate is rising. The lithium price is likely to be volatile, and it is recommended to closely monitor industry information and market sentiment [19]. Alumina Market Information - The alumina index fell 0.2% to 2932 yuan/ton, and the import window was open. The futures inventory decreased [21]. Strategy - The short - term ore price has support, but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference range of the domestic main contract AO2601 at 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [23]. Stainless Steel Market Information - The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12875 yuan/ton, down 0.46%. The social inventory decreased, and the raw material prices were stable [25]. Strategy - The futures market is under pressure, and the Fed's interest rate cut has limited immediate boosting effect. It is expected that stainless - steel prices will remain volatile [26]. Cast Aluminium Alloy Market Information - The AD2511 contract fell 0.73% to 20285 yuan/ton, and the domestic mainstream area's inventory increased [28]. Strategy - The downstream is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the cost support is strong. It is expected that the short - term price will continue to run at a high level [29].
有色金属日报-20250919
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-09-19 01:16