受累于美元走升，棉花短期震荡承压

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core View of the Report - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. The price of cotton has bottom - support as the commercial inventory is decreasing and the peak season for cotton textile is coming. The strategy recommendation is to mainly wait and see [1][3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5840.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5850.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15250.0 yuan [1] Disk - US sugar closed at 16.13, with a change of 4.00%. US cotton closed at 66.92, with a change of - 0.39% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the demand for summer cold drinks, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widened price difference between domestic and foreign markets. Cotton: In August, the temperature in cotton - growing areas in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was high and precipitation was low, so cotton was at high risk of heat damage. Currently, the commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and as the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, the cotton price has bottom - support [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 10629.0, with a change of - 3.27%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 4438.0, with a change of - 3.84% [2] Conclusion - Sugar: The sugarcane growth in southern producing areas is generally good, but the sugar beet production in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia is affected, which delays the sugar factory's start - up time. Brazil's sugar production progress has accelerated, and the market expects production to exceed consumption. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. Cotton: Cotton imports are lower than expected, and the expected ending inventory is revised down. The overall growth of cotton this season is better than last year. As the textile market enters the traditional peak season, cotton demand is expected to recover, and the price has the impetus to rise [3] Data Quick View - Outer - market Quotes: US sugar rose from 15.51 to 16.13, a 4.00% increase; US cotton fell from 67.18 to 66.92, a - 0.39% decrease [4] - Spot Prices: Nanning sugar spot price decreased from 5870.0 to 5840.0, a - 0.51% decrease; Kunming sugar spot price decreased from 5860.0 to 5850.0, a - 0.17% decrease; cotton index 328 increased from 3281 to 3280, a 0.06% increase; Xinjiang cotton spot price increased from 15200.0 to 15250.0, a 0.33% increase [4] - Spread Quick View: SR01 - 05 decreased by - 5.26%, SR05 - 09 increased by 100.00%, SR09 - 01 decreased by - 100.00%, CF01 - 05 remained unchanged, CF05 - 09 increased by 20.00%, CF09 - 01 increased by 27.27%. Sugar and cotton basis for different contracts also had corresponding changes [4] - Import Prices: Cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 79.1 [4] - Profit Margins: Sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1587.5 [4] - Options: The implied volatility and historical volatility of different sugar and cotton option contracts are given [4] - Inventory Warehouse Receipts: Sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 10988.0 to 10629.0, a - 3.27% decrease; cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 4615.0 to 4438.0, a - 3.84% decrease [4]