申银万国期货早间策略-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The September trend of the stock index is more volatile compared to July and August, and it is in a high - level consolidation phase after continuous growth. In the long - term, the strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are rich in technology - growth components, are more offensive with larger fluctuations but may bring higher returns. The SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, which are rich in dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive with smaller fluctuations but relatively weaker price elasticity [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts decreased, with declines ranging from - 61.20 to - 70.20 and drop - rates from - 1.35% to - 1.56%. The trading volume of IF contracts was between 17,518.00 and 95,637.00, and the open interest changes ranged from - 22,028.00 to 18,854.00 [1]. - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts increased, with rises from 3.80 to 6.20 and increase - rates from 0.13% to 0.21%. The trading volume of IH contracts was between 3,627.00 and 29,648.00, and the open interest changes ranged from - 4,903.00 to 5,476.00 [1]. - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts increased, with rises from 79.80 to 93.40 and increase - rates from 1.17% to 1.31%. The trading volume of IC contracts was between 16,292.00 and 67,086.00, and the open interest changes ranged from - 20,158.00 to 6,496.00 [1]. - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts increased, with rises from 93.00 to 99.40 and increase - rates from 1.25% to 1.41%. The trading volume of IM contracts was between 25,839.00 and 122,397.00, and the open interest changes ranged from - 23,457.00 to 11,171.00 [1]. - Inter - month Spreads: The current values of IF next month - IF current month, IH next month - IH current month, IC next month - IC current month, and IM next month - IM current month were - 11.20, - 0.60, - 55.40, and - 66.80 respectively [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - CSI 300 Index: The index points increased by 0.61%, with a trading volume of 23.572 billion lots and a total trading value of 608.454 billion yuan [1]. - SSE 50 Index: The index points decreased by 1.35% [1]. - CSI 500 Index: The index points increased, with a trading volume of 25.826 billion lots and a total trading value of 445.549 billion yuan [1]. - CSI 1000 Index: The index points increased by 0.95%, with a trading volume of 30.901 billion lots and a total trading value of 474.734 billion yuan [1]. - CSI 300 Industry Index: The main consumption, pharmaceutical and healthcare, real - estate and finance, and information technology sectors had previous values of 22,952.88, 9,661.44, 6,551.58, and 3,277.17 respectively, with a 0.76% increase in the main consumption sector [1]. - Other Industries: The telecommunications business and public utilities sectors had previous values of 5,079.10 and 2,514.52 respectively, with increase - rates of 0.05% and 0.01% [1]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - CSI 300 Futures - Spot Basis: The previous values of IF current month - CSI 300, IF next month - CSI 300, IF next quarter - CSI 300, and IF far - quarter - CSI 300 were 2.18, - 9.22, - 32.82, and - 58.22 respectively [1]. - SSE 50 Futures - Spot Basis: No specific data provided in the report. - CSI 500 Futures - Spot Basis: The previous values of IC current month - CSI 500, IC next month - CSI 500, IC next quarter - CSI 500, and IC far - quarter - CSI 500 were - 25.79, - 83.59, - 194.19, and - 358.99 respectively [1]. - CSI 1000 Futures - Spot Basis: No specific data provided in the report. 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indices - Domestic Indices: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index increased by 0.37%, 1.16%, 0.99%, and 1.95% respectively. The Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index had previous values of 26,908.39, 44,790.38, 8,042.44, and 3,147.35 respectively [1]. - Industry Indices: The energy, raw materials, industrial, and optional consumption sectors had previous values of 23,087.18, 9,595.53, 6,558.44, and 3,252.48 respectively, with increase - rates of - 0.58%, 0.69%, - 0.10% [1]. 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - Trade Issues: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated its stance on the TikTok issue, opposed the EU's weaponization of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, and initiated an anti - dumping investigation on relevant EU pork products [2]. - Science and Technology Input: Minister of Science and Technology Yin Hejun said that in the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China's R & D investment continued to increase. In 2024, the total R & D investment exceeded 3.6 trillion yuan, a 48% increase from 2020, and the R & D investment intensity reached 2.68%, exceeding the average level of EU countries [2]. - Service Enterprises: The China Enterprise Confederation and the China Entrepreneurs Association released the "Top 500 Chinese Service Enterprises in 2025", with the total operating income of the short - listed enterprises reaching 51.1 trillion yuan in 2024 and the average operating income exceeding 100 billion yuan for the first time [2]. - Social Insurance: Beijing and Shanghai announced the upper and lower limits of social insurance payment bases for 2025. Beijing's upper limit was 35,811 yuan and the lower limit was 7,162 yuan; Shanghai's upper limit was 37,302 yuan and the lower limit was 7,460 yuan [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - New Energy Vehicles: China's cumulative sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 40 million, ranking first in the world for 10 consecutive years. The preliminary estimate of the retail volume of narrow - sense passenger cars in September was about 2.15 million, a 6.5% month - on - month increase and a 2.0% year - on - year increase. The retail volume of new energy vehicles could reach about 1.25 million, with a penetration rate of 58.1%. By the end of August 2025, the total number of electric vehicle charging infrastructure (piles) in China reached 17.348 million, a 53.5% year - on - year increase [2]. - Postal Industry: In August, the business income of the postal industry was 142.99 billion yuan, a 4.4% year - on - year increase, and the express delivery business income was 118.96 billion yuan, a 4.2% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the cumulative business income of the postal industry was 1,161.06 billion yuan, a 7.8% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative express delivery business income was 958.37 billion yuan, a 9.2% year - on - year increase [2]. - Property Insurance Industry: In the first half of 2025, the premium growth rate of the Chinese property insurance industry was 4.2%, slightly lower than the same period last year. The underwriting profit reached 26 billion yuan, a record high for the same period, and the number of profitable underwriting entities exceeded half for the first time. The property reinsurance market had stable growth for many years, and the reinsurance premium ceded in half a year exceeded 100 billion yuan for the first time [2].