20250919申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250919

Report Overview - The report is the Shenwan Futures Non - ferrous Metals Basis Daily Report dated September 19, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations due to a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range and weakly downward fluctuations as short - term supply - demand may tilt towards surplus [2] Summary by Variety Copper - Night - session copper prices rose 0.1%. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, but smelting output continues high growth. Power industry shows positive growth, PV rush - installation increased year - on - year but future growth may slow. Auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. Copper prices may range - bound, and factors like the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand should be monitored [2] Zinc - Night - session zinc prices rose 0.09%. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally recovered, turning smelting profits positive, and smelting output is expected to continue rising. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment cumulative growth is slightly positive, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. Short - term supply - demand may lean towards surplus, and zinc prices may have range - bound and weakly downward fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] Market Data Domestic Futures and Basis | Variety | Domestic Previous Futures Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (yuan/ton) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Copper | 79,620 | 30 | | Aluminum | 20,775 | - 20 | | Zinc | 22,035 | - 65 | | Nickel | 120,940 | - 1,630 | | Lead | 17,145 | - 120 | | Tin | 269,100 | 3,060 | [2] LME Data | Variety | LME 3 - month Previous Closing Price (US dollars/ton) | LME Spot Premium (CASH - 3M, US dollars/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Copper | 9,946 | - 71.09 | 149,775 | - 1,175 | | Aluminum | 2,705 | 4.89 | 483,775 | 0 | | Zinc | 2,913 | 24.27 | 48,975 | 0 | | Nickel | 15,335 | - 177.83 | 228,468 | 2,034 | | Lead | 2,004 | - 44.05 | 225,350 | - 2,500 | | Tin | 33,750 | - 155.00 | 2,645 | 0 | [2]