生猪：预期转悲观，基差及价差趋势确认

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is -2, indicating the most bearish view, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [3]. 2. Core View - The market is pessimistic about the future of the pig industry. The spot price center will further decline, and the near - month contracts face high - capacity, high - inventory, and high - premium situations. The 11 - month contract is expected to see accelerated market competition. The 3 - month and 5 - month contracts may have a downward - moving center, and the 7 - month contract is expected to be strong in the short - term with a need to pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - Spot Prices: The Henan spot price is 12,930 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 12,550 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 13,560 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton year - on - year [2]. - Futures Prices: The price of the pig 2511 contract is 12,830 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton year - on - year; the pig 2601 contract is 13,330 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton year - on - year; the pig 2603 contract is 12,855 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the pig 2511 contract is 57,106 lots, down 2,628 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 98,989 lots, up 4,913 lots; the pig 2601 contract has a trading volume of 25,304 lots, down 382 lots, and an open interest of 66,666 lots, up 4,610 lots; the pig 2603 contract has a trading volume of 9,762 lots, up 4,096 lots, and an open interest of 42,992 lots, up 3,613 lots [2]. - Price Spreads: The basis of the pig 2511 contract is 100 yuan/ton, compared to 120 yuan/ton previously; the pig 2601 contract basis is - 400 yuan/ton, compared to 130 yuan/ton previously; the pig 2603 contract basis is 75 yuan/ton, compared to 100 yuan/ton previously. The 11 - 1 spread is - 500 yuan/ton, compared to 10 yuan/ton previously, and the 1 - 3 spread is 475 yuan/ton, compared to - 30 yuan/ton previously [2]. 3.2 Market Logic - Group companies have significantly reduced supply, but the average weight has increased again, and the price spread between fat and lean pigs has weakened, indicating a serious passive inventory build - up. The overall supply in September has increased significantly, and the market will face pressure due to the resonance of the production capacity cycle and inventory cycle from September to October. The short - term support level for the LH2511 contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,500 yuan/ton [4].