铜：国内现货升水回升，限制价格回落

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic spot premium of copper has rebounded, limiting the decline in copper prices [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Copper Fundamental Data - Futures Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 79,580, down 1.22% during the day and up 0.10% at night to 79660. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,946, down 0.28% [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 89,310, an increase of 27,376 from the previous day, and the open interest was 172,604, a decrease of 6,478. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 14,733, a decrease of 12,807, and the open interest was 290,000, a decrease of 2,734 [1]. - Futures Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 32,469, a decrease of 822, and the inventory of LME Copper was 148,875, a decrease of 900. The cancellation - warrant ratio of LME Copper was 9.03%, a decrease of 0.61% [1]. - Spreads: The LME copper premium, bonded - area warehouse receipt premium, and other spreads showed different changes. For example, the spot - to - near - month futures spread increased by 10 to 70 [1]. 3.2. Macro and Industry News - Macro News: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest decline in nearly four years [1][3]. - Industry News: The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia owned by Freeport McMoRan remains shut down as it continues to rescue seven workers trapped underground. Panama plans to negotiate with First Quantum Minerals on the复产 of the Cobre Panamá copper mine, with negotiations expected to start at the end of this year or early next year. In July, the copper production of Codelco and BHP's Escondida mine increased year - on - year, with Codelco producing 118,500 tons (up 6.4%) and Escondida producing 114,800 tons (up 7.8%). Chinese copper production increased slightly in August but is expected to decline in September due to routine maintenance and a shortage of anode copper supply. Ivanhoe Mines will announce the copper production guidance for Kamoa - Kakula in 2026 and 2027 after greater progress in the second - stage water - pumping work [1][3]. 3.3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral stance, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].