锌：跨市矛盾显著，锌价偏弱运行

Report Title - Zinc: Significant Cross - Market Contradictions, Zinc Prices Weakly Trending [1][6][11][19] Report Core View - On the early morning of September 18, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, but the monetary policy statement was less dovish than the market expected, putting short - term pressure on precious metals and non - ferrous metals. Although the long - term outlook for LME zinc has weakened, the current low inventory situation of LME zinc shows a strong Back structure, providing some support for the near - term. In the domestic market, as smelting enterprises are approaching winter stockpiling, zinc concentrate processing fees are showing a divergence. The import zinc concentrate processing fee (TC) continues to rise, while the average domestic zinc concentrate TC has slightly declined. As the zinc ore import window closes, the increase in overseas zinc ore TC is expected to slow down, and the degree of zinc ore surplus will ease. Additionally, the SHFE - LME ratio has reached a relatively low level. If the ratio further declines and the zinc ingot export window opens, the liquidation of long - SHFE and short - LME arbitrage funds will also provide some support for SHFE zinc. Overall, the SHFE - LME ratio is expected to continue to trend weakly, but the decline rate may slow down, and domestic zinc prices will maintain a weakly oscillating trend [2][3][19] Summary by Related Catalogs 2022 Zinc Ingot Export Window Opening Review - In late 2021, rising domestic thermal coal prices increased domestic zinc smelting costs, and rising natural gas prices increased overseas zinc smelting costs in Europe and other regions, leading to a decline in smelting output and a joint increase in the prices of high - energy - consuming products such as aluminum and zinc. After the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on coal in October 2021 to study measures to intervene in coal prices, domestic energy prices quickly fell, significantly reducing the smelting costs of domestic aluminum and zinc smelters. Due to high overseas energy prices, the supply of LME zinc smelting remained tight, and LME zinc continued to rise while SHFE zinc's follow - up increase was relatively limited. From mid - October 2021, the SHFE - LME ratio began to decline, reaching a minimum of 0.97 in April 2022 after excluding exchange rates. From January to May 2022, the cumulative zinc ingot exports were 5.35 tons, a significant increase compared to 0.27 tons in the same period of 2021. From January to May 2022, the cumulative zinc ore imports were 1.519 million physical tons, a 7.5% decrease compared to 1.642 million physical tons in the same period of 2021 [6] Review of the Current Round of SHFE - LME Contradictions in Zinc Ingots - At the beginning of 2025, due to a lower Benchmark for overseas zinc smelters compared to previous years, there was a high expectation of overseas zinc smelting production cuts. In contrast, the domestic zinc industry was in an oversupply cycle, with TC continuously rising and zinc smelting profits recovering quickly, causing the SHFE - LME ratio to decline slowly. Since mid - April 2025, the LME zinc ingot market has been continuously de - stocking, the LME zinc Cash - 3S structure and the 3 - 15 month spread structure have oscillated upwards, LME zinc has shown strength, and the decline rate of the SHFE - LME ratio has accelerated. Since late June 2025, domestic zinc ingot social inventories have continued to accumulate, the SHFE zinc monthly spread has returned to the Contango structure, and SHFE zinc has struggled to rise. The structural contradictions in the overseas LME zinc market have intensified, the LME zinc monthly structure has changed to the Back structure. Coupled with the market's trading of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation in August, the SHFE - LME ratio has declined at an accelerated pace [11] Future Price and Ratio Outlook - On the early morning of September 18, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, but the monetary policy statement was less dovish than the market expected, putting short - term pressure on precious metals and non - ferrous metals. Although the long - term outlook for LME zinc has weakened, the current low inventory situation of LME zinc shows a strong Back structure, providing some support for the near - term. In the domestic market, as smelting enterprises are approaching winter stockpiling, zinc concentrate processing fees are showing a divergence. The import zinc concentrate processing fee (TC) continues to rise, while the average domestic zinc concentrate TC has slightly declined. As the zinc ore import window closes, the increase in overseas zinc ore TC is expected to slow down, and the degree of zinc ore surplus will ease. Additionally, the SHFE - LME ratio has reached a relatively low level. If the ratio further declines and the zinc ingot export window opens, the liquidation of long - SHFE and short - LME arbitrage funds will also provide some support for SHFE zinc. Overall, the SHFE - LME ratio is expected to continue to trend weakly, but the decline rate may slow down, and domestic zinc prices will maintain a weakly oscillating trend [2][3][19]