Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no specific information about the overall industry investment ratings in the report. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged. Although the Fed cut interest rates as expected, there are contradictions in the outlook. Gold prices are at a historical high, with short - term high - level oscillations and a medium - term bullish trend. Silver follows gold and is recommended to be observed [4]. - For various commodities, different trading strategies are proposed based on their market performance, fundamentals, and supply - demand relationships, such as going long on aluminum at dips, observing for zinc, going long on lead at dips, etc. [3][5] Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - Gold: The price is at a high level. The de - dollarization logic persists, and with the Fed's interest - rate cut, it is expected to have short - term high - level oscillations and a medium - term upward trend. Domestic gold ETF funds continue to flow in, and inventories in some exchanges increase [4]. - Silver: Follows the trend of gold and is recommended to be observed. Global silver ETF holdings decrease [4]. Basic Metals - Aluminum: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract drops. The supply side maintains high - load production, and the demand side shows continuous warming. After the interest - rate cut and inventory de - stocking difficulties, the price has a phased decline. It is recommended to go long at dips considering future demand. The price of the alumina main contract also drops. The supply is in a high - production state, and the demand comes from electrolytic aluminum plants. Due to the supply - demand surplus pattern, it is expected to be in a weak oscillation, and it is recommended to observe [3]. - Zinc: The price of the main contract drops. Supply - side disturbances increase, but overall supply is abundant. Consumption is "not in the peak - season", and inventories continue to accumulate. It is recommended to observe [3][5]. - Lead: The price of the main contract rises slightly. Supply is regionally tightened, and consumption is expected to increase. Inventories show a small accumulation, but spot circulation is tight. It is recommended to go long at dips [5]. - Industrial Silicon: The main contract price drops. Supply increases, and both social and warehouse inventories start to accumulate. Demand is at a relatively high level this year. The market is in a long - short game regarding policies, and it is expected to oscillate within a certain range. It is recommended to observe [5]. - Lithium Carbonate: The main contract price drops. Supply is increasing, and demand from the energy - storage and new - energy vehicle sectors is strong. It is expected to de - stock, and the price is expected to oscillate within a certain range. It is recommended to observe [5]. - Polycrystalline Silicon: The main contract price drops. Supply is stable, and inventories start to accumulate. Demand in the photovoltaic industry is weak. The market is in a game regarding policies, and it is expected to oscillate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to the 11 - 12 reverse - spread opportunity [5]. Black Industry - Rebar: The price of the main contract drops. Steel demand shows seasonal marginal improvement with obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to hold short positions in the rebar 2601 contract [6]. - Iron Ore: The price of the main contract drops. Iron ore supply - demand is neutral to strong. It is recommended to observe [6]. - Coking Coal: The price of the main contract drops. Supply - side inventories are differentiated, and the futures are over - valued. It is recommended to observe [6]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: The price of CBOT soybeans drops. Global supply is expected to be loose, and demand shows a structural differentiation. Short - term domestic and foreign markets are differentiated, and the medium - term trend depends on tariff policies [7]. - Corn: The 2511 contract is weakly running. Imported grain auctions increase supply, and new - crop production is expected to increase. The futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [8]. - Sugar: The 01 contract price drops. Brazilian sugar production is high, and the domestic sugarcane growing situation varies by region. It is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [8]. - Cotton: The price of the US cotton futures drops, and the domestic cotton futures are weakly oscillating. It is recommended to observe within a certain price range [8]. - Log: The 09 contract price drops. Port inventories are stable, and downstream demand has not improved. It is recommended to observe [8]. - Palm Oil: The price of Malaysian palm oil drops. Supply is in a seasonal increase cycle, and demand shows a certain increase. Near - term inventories are accumulating, and there is a seasonal production - reduction expectation in the long - term. The short - term is restricted by international oils, and it is recommended to pay attention to production and bio - diesel policies [8]. - Egg: The 2511 contract oscillates narrowly, and the spot price drops. Supply is sufficient, and demand may increase seasonally. The futures are expected to be strongly oscillating in the short - term [8]. - Live Pig: The 2511 contract continues to decline, and the spot price drops. Supply is abundant in the near - term and expected to decrease in the long - term. It is recommended to continue the reverse - spread strategy [9]. Energy and Chemicals - LLDPE: The main contract price drops slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is improving. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will become looser. It is recommended to short at high prices or conduct a reverse - spread operation [10]. - PVC: The 01 contract price is flat. Supply - demand is in a weak balance, and inventories are at a new high. It is recommended to observe [10]. - Rubber: The price of the main contract drops. Raw material prices fluctuate, and downstream enterprise operating rates change slightly. The market is in an oscillating state under the situation of strong reality and weak expectation [10]. - Glass: The 01 contract price drops. Supply is expected to increase slightly, and inventories are decreasing. Downstream demand shows seasonal improvement. It is recommended to go long at dips [10][11]. - PP: The main contract price drops slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the peak - season. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will become looser. It is recommended to short at high prices or conduct a reverse - spread operation [10][11]. - Crude Oil: The price drops. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening. It is recommended to short at high prices [11]. - Styrene: The main contract price drops. Supply inventories are at a normal - to - high level, and demand is in the peak - season. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will become looser. It is recommended to short at high prices or short the styrene profit [11]. - Soda Ash: The 01 contract price drops. Supply is in the high - production season, and inventories are rising. Supply - demand is in a weak balance. It is recommended to observe [11][12]. - Caustic Soda: The 01 contract price rises. Supply - demand is relatively healthy. It is recommended to go long [12].
商品期货早班车-20250919
Zhao Shang Qi Huo·2025-09-19 02:03