国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250919

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The report provides investment outlooks for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, suggesting that most of them will experience wide - range fluctuations or repeated oscillations [2][4][6][7][11][12][15][16][18] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Market Outlook: Expected to have repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations [2][4] - Fundamentals: The closing price of the futures contract 12601 was 804.5 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton (0.12%). The持仓量 increased by 2,092 hands. Among the spot prices, the price of Super Special (56.5%) increased by 6.0 yuan/ton, while others remained unchanged. Some basis and spread values changed slightly [4] - News: The US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% on September 17 [4] - Trend Strength: - 1 [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Market Outlook: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][6][7] - Fundamentals: For rebar futures contract RB2601, the closing price was 3,147 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (- 0.25%); for hot - rolled coil futures contract HC2601, the closing price was 3,354 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (- 0.89%). Spot prices in most regions decreased. Some basis and spread values changed [7] - News: Steel output, inventory, and apparent demand data were released on September 18. In August 2025, national steel production data showed different trends. From January to August, national industrial added value, fixed - asset investment, and retail sales data were also provided. Steel import and export data from January to August showed an increase in exports and a decrease in imports [8][9] - Trend Strength: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Market Outlook: Market sentiment is repeated, with wide - range fluctuations [2][11][12] - Fundamentals: Futures prices of different contracts showed small changes. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia were 5350 yuan/ton and 5730 yuan/ton respectively. Various price differences also changed [12] - News: On September 18, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in different regions were reported. A large steel group in Hebei increased the silicon - manganese tender volume in September compared to August, with a lower final price [12] - Trend Strength: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [14] Coke and Coking Coal - Market Outlook: Expected to have repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations [2][15][16] - Fundamentals: Futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 decreased. Spot prices of some coking coals and cokes changed, and basis and spread values also had some adjustments [16] - News: The US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% on September 17 [16] - Trend Strength: 0 for both coke and coking coal [16] Logs - Market Outlook: Expected to have repeated oscillations [2][18] - Fundamentals: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts showed different trends. Spot prices of most log varieties remained unchanged, while some had small weekly increases [19] - News: The US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% on September 17 [21] - Trend Strength: 0 [21]