生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250919

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the price of live pigs will experience a shock adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase gradually until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to strengthen seasonally, providing some support for pig prices. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form, and the pig price is expected to rebound at the end of the year. It is advisable to consider a reverse spread between the 11 - 01 contracts at an appropriate time [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Dynamics - On September 18, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 428 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the change in the slaughter weight of live pigs. The main contract (LH2511) increased its position by 4,913 lots, with a holding of about 99,000 lots. The highest price was 12,965 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,820 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,830 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will increase overall in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen. The bearish logic in the market includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the breeding end, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices in September and October. The bullish logic includes beneficial weight reduction in the breeding end, improved consumption after the weather turns cool, and limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume [3]. 3. Strategy Suggestion - The view is shock adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and it is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, weakening the willingness of small - scale farmers to reduce weight and providing some support for pig prices. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form. If this cycle occurs, the pig price is expected to rebound at the end of the year, and a reverse spread between the 11 - 01 contracts can be considered at an appropriate time [4]. 4. Market Overview - On September 18, the national average live pig slaughter price was 12.78 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.17 yuan/kg compared to the previous day, a decline of 1.31%. Futures prices of various contracts generally declined, with the decline ranging from 0.79% to 1.33%. The main basis in Henan Province decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a decline of 50% [6]. 5. Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in Henan Province, the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts, and the price difference between the 01 - 03 contracts [14].