国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various energy - chemical futures, including their price trends, fundamental data, and market conditions. It offers short - term and medium - term outlooks for each commodity, taking into account factors such as supply and demand, production capacity, inventory, and macro - economic policies [2]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - PX: The mid - term trend is still weak. The downstream PTA has low profits and increased maintenance, leading to a marginal loosening of PX supply. Future attention should be paid to the maintenance time of Zhejiang Petrochemical's facilities and the impact of the shutdown of Shenghong's reforming unit [7][14]. - PTA: Although maintenance has increased and processing fees have been restored, the mid - term trend remains weak. The polyester load has limited room for improvement, and demand is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter [7][14]. - MEG: A 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage is recommended. The supply pressure is gradually emerging, and the mid - term unilateral trend may still be weak. The polyester start - up rate has reached its peak, and future demand is expected to decline [9][15]. 3.2 Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Rubber: It is expected to oscillate. In Yunnan, the supply is gradually increasing, but the strong demand for raw materials from processing plants supports the purchase price [16][19]. - Synthetic Rubber: It is under oscillatory pressure. The fundamentals of both synthetic rubber and butadiene face increased pressure, mainly from high supply. The supply growth rate is higher than the demand growth rate, and the inventory pressure of synthetic rubber has increased [21][23]. 3.3 Asphalt - Asphalt is expected to oscillate narrowly following the oil price. This week, the domestic asphalt device maintenance volume has increased, the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises has decreased, while the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises has increased, and the shipment volume has increased [24][37]. 3.4 LLDPE and PP - LLDPE: It is expected to have a mid - term oscillatory market. Affected by macro - sentiment, it is short - term strong. The demand is gradually improving, and the supply pressure in the East China region may be alleviated in late September. The inventory pressure is not significant [39][40]. - PP: Caution is needed when short - selling at low levels in the later stage, and the mid - term may be an oscillatory market. Although short - term demand has improved, the cost side is still weak, and the supply pressure will further increase in the future [43][44]. 3.5 Caustic Soda and Pulp - Caustic Soda: It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The main obstacles to the rise of caustic soda come from exports and alumina. Currently, the driving force for the rise is insufficient, but it will oscillate widely in the short - term due to anti - involution and anti - deflation sentiment [47][49]. - Pulp: It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The port inventory is at a medium level within the year, the supply pressure remains, the downstream demand is weak, and the pre - holiday stocking has not appeared [52][56]. 3.6 Glass and Methanol - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable. The domestic float glass market price is mainly stable, with some regional price differentiation. The downstream continues to purchase on a rigid - demand basis [57][58]. - Methanol: It is in a weak operation. The port inventory is fluctuating narrowly, and the overall trading atmosphere in the domestic methanol market is slightly weak. The short - term main contract is under pressure in the range [60][64]. 3.7 Urea and Styrene - Urea: It is under oscillatory pressure. The overall inventory of urea is rising, and the spot trading has weakened. The mid - term oscillatory pressure logic remains unchanged [65][69]. - Styrene: The mid - term trend is bearish. The cost center has moved down due to OPEC's production increase, and the short - term downward space for pure benzene and styrene has gradually opened up [70][71]. 3.8 Soda Ash, LPG, and Propylene - Soda Ash: The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market is stable and oscillating, with the supply increasing slightly and the downstream demand remaining stable [72][74]. - LPG: It is expected to have a short - term narrow - range and slightly strong oscillation. - Propylene: It is expected to operate weakly at a high level in the short - term. The start - up rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation have changed [77][78]. 3.9 PVC, Fuel Oil, and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - PVC: It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. Although it is short - term strong due to anti - deflation and anti - involution factors, the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the mid - term trend still faces pressure [87][88]. - Fuel Oil: It had a narrow - range oscillation at night and is in a short - term adjustment trend. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It has slightly weakened, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has narrowed [90]. 3.10 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC2510 contract is under pressure, while the EC2512 and EC2602 contracts are expected to have wide - range oscillations [92].