Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous previous increases, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence recently, with funds switching between high - and low - level stocks and rapid rotation. Short - term indexes face adjustment pressure due to shrinking trading volume, but in the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, suggesting a long - position strategy on dips [3]. - In the bond market, the economic data in August continued to slow down, and the "anti - involution" policy led to a rise in the price level. However, the subsequent export - rush effect may weaken, and exports may face pressure. With the central bank maintaining a loose stance on funds, interest rates are expected to decline, but the short - term trend may be affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect, with the bond market expected to oscillate and recover [6]. - For precious metals, the current weakening of the US economic data and the Fed's "risk - management" rate cut have alleviated the market's expectation of an overseas economic recession, which is positive for silver. The market's expectation of a rate cut will increase with the appointment of a new Fed chairman. A long - position strategy is recommended, focusing on the price increase opportunity of silver [8]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, the Fed's monetary policy is less loose than expected, which cools down the market sentiment. However, due to the traditional peak season for downstream industries and certain disturbances in overseas mines, the prices of some non - ferrous metals are expected to oscillate [11]. - In the steel market, the overall commodity market atmosphere is weak, and the prices of steel products continue to oscillate and decline. The Fed's interest rate cut has a limited impact on steel demand in the short term, but may drive the recovery of the manufacturing industry in the long term. Currently, the demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils is weak, and steel prices may decline if demand cannot be effectively restored [33]. - In the energy and chemical market, the prices of some products such as rubber and crude oil have declined. For rubber, the supply - side advantage has decreased, and the short - term trend is weak, while a long - position strategy is maintained in the medium - term. For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, the fundamentals are still good, and a long - position strategy is recommended [50][55]. - In the agricultural product market, the prices of some products such as pigs and eggs are weak. For pigs, the supply in September is expected to be abundant, but there are potential supporting factors, and the spot price may fluctuate within a narrow range. For eggs, the supply is still large, but the pressure may decrease marginally, and short - term long - positions in the far - month contracts can be considered after a decline [76][78]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - Market News: The Ministry of Commerce responded to the TikTok issue; NVIDIA announced a $5 billion investment in Intel; the movie "731" was released globally, breaking the box - office record; Shiyun Circuit's new PCB products are expected to be put into production in mid - 2026 and may supply Tesla in the future. The basis ratios of stock index futures were also provided [2]. - Strategy Viewpoint: After continuous previous increases, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence, and short - term indexes face adjustment pressure. In the long - term, a long - position strategy on dips is recommended [3]. Treasury Bonds - Market News: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS declined. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 17, and the central bank will issue central bank bills in Hong Kong on September 22. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 487 billion yuan on Thursday, with a net injection of 195 billion yuan [4][5]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The economic data in August continued to slow down, and exports may face pressure. With the central bank maintaining a loose stance on funds, interest rates are expected to decline, but the short - term trend may be affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect, with the bond market expected to oscillate and recover [6]. Precious Metals - Market News: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver declined. The US economic data was resilient, and the US dollar index was strong, putting short - term pressure on precious metal prices. The Fed's "risk - management" rate cut alleviated the market's expectation of an overseas economic recession, which is positive for silver [7]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The market's expectation of a rate cut will increase with the appointment of a new Fed chairman. A long - position strategy is recommended, focusing on the price increase opportunity of silver. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver are 818 - 850 yuan/gram and 9695 - 10500 yuan/kilogram respectively [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Market News: LME copper prices declined, and SHFE copper was relatively resistant. LME copper inventories decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventories declined [10]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The Fed's monetary policy is less loose than expected, and the short - term copper price may oscillate [11]. Aluminum - Market News: LME aluminum prices increased, and SHFE aluminum prices decreased. The position of SHFE aluminum decreased, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly [12]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The Fed's statement was less dovish than expected, but the downstream demand is in the traditional peak season, and the aluminum price is expected to be strongly supported, with attention paid to the support level of 20,700 yuan/ton [13]. Zinc - Market News: SHFE zinc prices declined, and LME zinc prices also declined. The domestic social inventory of zinc decreased slightly, and the LME zinc inventory continued to decline [14]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The import window of zinc ore is closed, and the short - term zinc price is expected to be weak [15]. Lead - Market News: SHFE lead prices increased, and LME lead prices also increased. The domestic social inventory of lead decreased [16]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply of lead concentrate is tight, and the downstream demand is improving. The short - term lead price is expected to be strong [16]. Nickel - Market News: Nickel prices oscillated weakly. The cost of nickel ore decreased slightly, and the demand for nickel iron is expected to increase [17]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The high inventory of refined nickel drags down the nickel price, but in the long - term, the nickel price is expected to be supported. A long - position strategy on dips is recommended, with the reference operating ranges for SHFE nickel and LME nickel being 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton respectively [18][19]. Tin - Market News: Tin prices oscillated and declined. The supply of tin decreased significantly, and the demand increased marginally [20]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The short - term tin price is expected to oscillate, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [21]. Carbonate Lithium - Market News: The spot price of carbonate lithium was flat, and the futures price declined. The domestic production of carbonate lithium reached a record high, and the inventory decreased slightly [22]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The Fed's statement was lower than expected, but the supply and demand in the lithium - battery peak season are both strong, and the bottom support of carbonate lithium has increased. The lithium price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to industry information and market sentiment [23]. Alumina - Market News: The alumina index declined, and the trading volume decreased. The domestic spot price of alumina decreased, and the import window opened [24][25]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The short - term price of alumina ore is supported, but may face pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting industry is difficult to change in the short term. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended, with the reference operating range for the main domestic contract being 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [26]. Stainless Steel - Market News: The stainless - steel futures price declined, and the social inventory decreased. The spot price of stainless steel was stable, and the raw material price was also stable [27]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The futures market is under pressure, and the stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market News: The price of the AD2511 contract declined, and the trading volume increased. The domestic average price of ADC12 decreased, and the inventory increased [29]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The downstream demand for casting aluminum alloy is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. With the support of cost and increased market activity, the short - term price is expected to remain high [30][31]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market News: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils declined. The social inventory of rebar decreased, and the social inventory of hot - rolled coils increased slightly [33]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The overall commodity market atmosphere is weak, and the steel price is expected to decline if demand cannot be effectively restored. The Fed's interest rate cut has a limited impact on steel demand in the short term, but may drive the recovery of the manufacturing industry in the long term [33]. Iron Ore - Market News: The iron - ore futures price declined, and the spot price was stable. The overseas iron - ore shipment increased, and the domestic port inventory decreased slightly [34][35]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The short - term iron - ore price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction speed [36]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market News: The glass futures price declined, and the soda - ash futures price also declined. The social inventory of glass decreased, and the social inventory of soda ash also decreased [37][38]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The glass market is expected to oscillate, and the soda - ash market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [37][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market News: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon declined. The spot price of manganese silicon was stable, and the spot price of ferrosilicon was also stable [39]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market News: The price of industrial silicon declined, and the price of polysilicon also declined. The production of industrial silicon increased, and the production of polysilicon was close to the same - period high [44][47]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The short - term price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to industry capacity - reduction progress. The price of polysilicon is affected by policy and sentiment, and attention should be paid to capacity integration and downstream price - passing progress [45][48]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market News: Rubber prices declined, and the supply - side advantage decreased. The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises increased slightly [50][51]. - Strategy Viewpoint: A long - position strategy is maintained in the medium - term, but a wait - and - see strategy is recommended in the short - term due to the weak trend [53]. Crude Oil - Market News: The crude - oil futures price declined, and the prices of related refined - oil products also declined [54]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The geopolitical premium has disappeared, but the fundamentals are still good, and a long - position strategy is recommended [55]. Methanol - Market News: The methanol price declined, and the inventory increased. The supply - side operating rate decreased, and the demand - side operating rate increased [56]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The high inventory puts pressure on the methanol price, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [56]. Urea - Market News: The urea price declined, and the inventory increased. The supply - side operating rate increased, and the demand - side performance was average [57][58]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The urea market is weak, and a wait - and - see strategy or a long - position strategy on dips is recommended [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market News: The prices of pure benzene and styrene declined. The supply - side operating rate decreased, and the demand - side operating rate increased [59]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The BZN spread is expected to repair, and a long - position strategy on dips for the pure - benzene US - South Korea spread is recommended [60]. PVC - Market News: The PVC futures price declined, and the spot price also declined. The cost - side price was stable, and the demand - side operating rate increased [61]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The domestic supply of PVC is strong, and the demand is weak. A short - position strategy is recommended, but attention should be paid to the risk of a rebound due to the "anti - involution" sentiment [62][63]. Ethylene Glycol - Market News: The ethylene - glycol futures price declined, and the spot price also declined. The supply - side operating rate was high, and the demand - side operating rate decreased slightly [64]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The inventory of ethylene glycol is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, and a short - position strategy is recommended, but attention should be paid to the risk of the weak - expectation not being realized [65]. PTA - Market News: The PTA futures price declined, and the spot price increased slightly. The supply - side operating rate was stable, and the demand - side operating rate decreased slightly [66]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The PTA market is expected to oscillate, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [67]. p - Xylene - Market News: The p - xylene futures price declined, and the spot price also declined. The operating rate of p - xylene increased, and the operating rate of PTA was stable [68][69]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The p - xylene market is expected to accumulate inventory, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [70]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market News: The PE futures price declined, and the spot price was stable. The supply - side operating rate decreased, and the demand - side operating rate increased slightly [71]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The PE price is expected to oscillate and increase in the long - term, with attention paid to the cost - side support and seasonal demand [72]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market News: The PP futures price declined, and the spot price was stable. The supply - side operating rate increased, and the demand - side operating rate increased slightly [73]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The PP market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be under pressure in the short term [74]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market News: The domestic pig price declined, and the demand was average. Some farmers were reluctant to sell at low prices [76]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply in September is expected to be abundant, but there are potential supporting factors. A strategy of looking for short - term long - positions after a decline and short - positions after a rebound is recommended, and a reverse - spread strategy is maintained for the far - month contracts [77]. Eggs - Market News: The domestic egg price declined in some areas, and the supply was sufficient. The downstream purchasing sentiment was cautious [78]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply of eggs is still large, but the pressure may decrease marginally. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended, and short - term long - positions in the far - month contracts can be considered after a decline [78]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Market News: The US soybean price declined slightly, and the domestic soybean - meal price also declined. The domestic soybean - meal trading volume was good, and the inventory was at a high level [79]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The cost of imported soybeans is expected to be weak, and the domestic soybean - meal market is expected to enter the de - inventory stage in September. A range - bound trading strategy is recommended, waiting for a driving factor to determine the direction [81]. Oils and Fats - Market News: The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in the first 10 days of September and increased in the first 15 days. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in the first 10 days of September. The prices of domestic oils and fats declined [82]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The price of oils and fats is expected to oscillate and strengthen in the medium - term, and a strategy of buying on dips after a decline is recommended [83]. Sugar - Market News: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price declined, and the domestic sugar import volume increased in August. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased in the second half of August [84]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The sugar price is expected to decline in the long - term, but a short - term rebound is possible. A cautious trading strategy is recommended [85]. Cotton - Market News: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price declined, and the domestic cotton import volume decreased in August. The spot price of cotton increased slightly [86]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The short - term cotton price is expected to oscillate due to the combination of positive and negative factors [87].
文字早评2025/09/19星期五：宏观金融类-20250919
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-09-19 01:52