中辉期货品种策略日报-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - Beans and Meal: Short - term decline, with limited continuous decline space due to Sino - US trade issues, and treated as a large - range market. Caution is needed when short - selling below 2940 yuan [1][4]. - Rapeseed Meal: Short - term decline, with multiple and short factors intertwined due to trade policies and high inventory. It follows the trend of beans and meal, and the progress of Sino - Canadian trade should be monitored [1]. - Palm Oil: Short - term consolidation, with a generally positive fundamental outlook. Look for short - term long opportunities on dips, but gradually control positions and risk management [1]. - Soybean Oil: Short - term consolidation, pressured by the US bio - diesel policy and approaching soybean harvest, while supported by domestic double - festival stocking demand. Be cautious when going long [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: Oscillating upwards, supported by Sino - Canadian trade disputes and double - festival demand, but its upward movement is restricted by the development of Sino - Australian trade [1]. - Cotton: Cautiously bearish, with supply pressure from the increasing volume of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries. Domestically, beware of short - term rebound due to potential抢购. It is recommended to short - allocate near - month contracts [1][12]. - Red Dates: Cautiously bearish, with concerns about quality gradually easing. There may be significant price fluctuations before November. Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [1][15]. - Live Pigs: Short - term decline, with the spot market under pressure from supply. Maintain a short - selling strategy for the November contract and an inverse spread strategy [1][18]. 3. Summary by Variety Beans and Meal - Market Data: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2993 yuan/ton, down 0.30% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3025.43 yuan/ton, down 0.77% [2]. - Supply and Demand: As of September 12, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 968.6 million tons, up 2.50 million tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 733.2 million tons, up 1.50 million tons, and bean meal inventory was 116.44 million tons, up 2.82 million tons [3]. Rapeseed Meal - Market Data: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2470 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day; the national average spot price remained unchanged at 2636.84 yuan/ton [5]. - Supply and Demand: As of September 12, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 7.4 million tons, down 2.7 million tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 million tons, down 0.05 million tons [6]. Palm Oil - Market Data: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9304 yuan/ton, down 1.27% from the previous day; the national average price was 9308 yuan/ton, down 1.64% [7]. - Supply and Demand: As of September 12, 2025, the national key area commercial inventory was 64.15 million tons, up 2.22 million tons week - on - week [8]. Cotton - Market Data: The main contract CF2601 closed at 13765 yuan/ton, down 0.90% from the previous day; the domestic spot price rose 0.06% to 15330 yuan/ton [9]. - Supply and Demand: Internationally, the US cotton harvest is approaching, and Brazil is in the harvest season. Domestically, new cotton is about to be listed, and the commercial inventory has decreased to 127 million tons [10][11]. Red Dates - Market Data: The main contract CJ2601 closed at 10620 yuan/ton, down 1.67% from the previous day [13]. - Supply and Demand: The main producing areas are in the coloring and sugaring stage. The estimated new - season production is 56 - 62 million tons, and the inventory of 36 sample enterprises is 9247 tons, down 74 tons week - on - week [15]. Live Pigs - Market Data: The main contract Lh2511 closed at 12830 yuan/ton, down 1.31% from the previous day; the spot price was 13040 yuan/ton [16]. - Supply and Demand: The national sample enterprise's pig inventory was 3782.4 million tons, up 0.51% month - on - month, and the出栏 volume was 1117.72 million tons, up 2.39% month - on - month [16].