首席点评：下跌只是插曲，潜力悄然集聚

Report Summary 1. Overall Market Conditions - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, marking the largest decline in nearly four years [1]. - The Bank of England decided to keep interest rates unchanged but remained cautious about further rate cuts this year due to growing concerns about inflation rebound [1]. - Overseas investors' holdings of US Treasuries reached a new high in July, with Japan's holdings hitting a more than one - year high, China's hitting a more than sixteen - year low, and Canada's holdings decreasing sharply by $57.1 billion [1]. 2. Key Investment Products Analysis Stock Index - US stock indexes rose, while the domestic stock index fluctuated. The trading volume on the previous trading day was 3.17 trillion yuan. On September 17, the margin trading balance increased by 12.711 billion yuan to 23.88522 trillion yuan [2][11]. - The market is in a high - level consolidation phase after a long - term rise. The strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][11]. Gold - After the Fed's interest rate decision, gold and silver prices declined. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, in line with market expectations. The dot - plot shows that the Fed expects to cut rates by 25 - 50 basis points this year and below 3.5% next year [3][19]. - US economic data shows a mixed picture. Retail sales in August were strong, but employment data was weak. The long - term drivers for gold are clear, but short - term adjustments may occur due to profit - taking [3][19]. Copper - Copper prices rose 0.1% at night. The supply of concentrates remains tight, but smelting output continues to grow. Multiple factors are intertwined, and copper prices may fluctuate within a range [4][20]. 3. Daily News Highlights International News - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 13 was 231,000, lower than the expected 240,000 [5][6]. Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce announced measures to expand the scope of unilateral visa - free countries, promote service exports, and implement tax - refund policies. The Ministry of Culture and Tourism launched a consumption plan and issued over 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies [7]. Industry News - The research paper on the DeepSeek - R1 inference model co - completed by the DeepSeek team and Liang Wenfeng was published on the cover of Nature, filling the gap of mainstream large - language models without independent review [8]. 4. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial Products - Stock Index: Similar to the previous analysis, it is in a high - level consolidation phase, with different index characteristics [11]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bonds fell slightly, with the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond rising to 1.7825%. The central bank increased net investment, but the money market tightened. It is recommended to wait and see [12][13]. Energy and Chemical Products - Crude Oil: Oil prices fell slightly at night. The Fed's rate cut may boost oil demand but also raises concerns about the economy. Global oil inventories have increased for six consecutive months [14]. - Methanol: Methanol prices fell 0.98% at night. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants increased, while the overall methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly. Coastal inventories are at a high level, and the short - term outlook is bearish [15]. - Rubber: Rubber prices fell on Thursday. Supply has increased, and demand has improved seasonally. The short - term decline is expected to be limited, and the market may fluctuate [16]. - Polyolefins: Polyolefin prices fell. The fundamentals are mainly driven by supply and demand. After continuous decline, the market may continue to fluctuate in a low - level range [17]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass and soda ash futures declined. The market is in the process of inventory digestion, and the focus is on the supply - side reduction effect [18]. Metals - Precious Metals: Similar to the gold analysis, prices fell after the Fed's decision. Long - term drivers are clear, but short - term adjustments may occur [19]. - Copper: Copper prices rose slightly at night. Multiple factors are intertwined, and prices may fluctuate within a range [4][20]. - Zinc: Zinc prices rose 0.09% at night. The processing fee for zinc concentrates has increased, and the short - term supply may be in surplus. Prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [21]. - Lithium Carbonate: Supply has increased slightly, while demand shows a mixed picture. The futures price may be volatile, and the price is supported by downstream procurement demand [22][23]. Black Metals - Coking Coal and Coke: The night - session prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated. The inventory pressure and profit contraction of finished products restrict the market, while policy expectations provide support [24]. - Iron Ore: Steel mills have resumed production, and iron ore demand is supported. Global iron ore shipments have decreased, and port inventories are decreasing rapidly. The market is expected to be bullish [25]. - Steel: The supply pressure of steel is increasing, and inventory is accumulating. The export situation is mixed. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the overall view is bullish, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [26]. Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal were weak at night. The USDA report had a neutral - bearish impact on the market. The expected improvement in trade relations may put pressure on domestic prices [27]. - Edible Oils: The prices of soybean and rapeseed oil were strong at night, while palm oil prices fell slightly. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil have decreased, and the market may fluctuate [28][29]. - Sugar: International sugar prices are expected to be weak due to increased supply and inventory. Domestic sugar prices are supported by high sales - to - production ratios and low inventories but may be dragged down by import pressure [30]. - Cotton: Cotton prices showed a mixed performance. The freight rate of shipping companies has decreased during the National Day holiday, and the 12 - contract is relatively resistant. Attention should be paid to the follow - up rate cuts of shipping companies [31]. Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The EC index was weak, with the 10 - contract falling 6.72%. The freight rate of shipping companies has decreased significantly, and the 12 - contract is relatively resistant. Attention should be paid to the follow - up rate cuts of shipping companies [32].