国泰君安期货所长早读-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped significantly, reaching the largest decline in nearly four years, but the number of continued claims remained above the key level of 1.9 million, reflecting a complex labor - market situation [7]. - For the Container Freight Index (Europe Line), the 2510 contract is under pressure, while the 2512 and 2602 contracts are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The 2510 contract's delivery settlement price is likely to be within 1100 points [8][9]. - Treasury futures may have a slight short - term recovery but maintain a bearish and volatile view. There are structural opportunities in the bond market in the next six months, and systematic trend opportunities may come after the next fundamental high [11]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Labor Market - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 13 was 231,000, down 32,000 from the previous week, with the largest decline in nearly four years. The continued claims remained above 1.9 million, and the decline was mainly due to the normalization of abnormal data in Texas, related to seasonal personnel changes in the education system [7]. 3.2 Container Freight Index (Europe Line) - 2510 Contract: It is expected to operate under pressure. The price - list center for weeks 39 - 41 may fall to the range of $1450 - 1500 per FEU, equivalent to an SCFIS index of about 1015 - 1050 points. The delivery settlement price is likely to be within 1100 points [8]. - 2512 Contract: Shipping companies may try to increase freight rates from November to December. However, there are two negative factors in December this year compared to last year, so it should be treated with a wide - range fluctuation mindset [9]. - 2602 Contract: The Spring Festival in 2026 is later than in 2025. Historically, in years with a late Spring Festival, the 02 contract may not be at a discount to the 12 contract. Strategies include considering long - term positive spreads between 02 - 04 and 12 - 04 [9]. 3.3 Treasury Futures - They are expected to have a slight short - term recovery but maintain a bearish and volatile view. Three factors contribute to the weak trend: policy orientation favoring stocks over bonds, the improvement of inflation expectations, and the negative feedback path from institutional redemptions to shifts in self - operated institutions and household wealth transfers. There are structural opportunities in the bond market in the next six months [11]. 3.4 Commodity Futures - Precious Metals: Gold's FOMC meeting was in line with expectations, and silver is in a shock - adjustment phase [16][20][21]. - Base Metals: Copper's domestic spot premium has risen, limiting price declines; zinc is weakly volatile; lead's price is supported by inventory reduction; tin is in a range - bound fluctuation; aluminum is in a range - bound fluctuation, alumina still has an oversupply, and cast aluminum alloy is supported by cost [16][26][29][32][35][40]. - Energy and Chemicals: Industrial silicon should be shorted on rallies; polycrystalline silicon's short - term sentiment may cool down; iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, silicon ferroalloy, manganese ferroalloy, coke, and coking coal are all expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to repeated expectations [16][54][55][58][60][61][65][68][69]. - Agricultural Products: Palm oil has no obvious upward or downward drivers and is suitable for range trading; soybean oil can be bought on dips; soybean meal may rebound from oversold conditions; corn is in a volatile state; sugar is in a downward - volatile trend; cotton market focuses on new cotton listings; eggs' spot market is weak; the outlook for hogs has turned pessimistic; peanuts should be watched for new peanut listings [19].