中辉期货热卷早报-20250919

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides investment ratings for various steel and related products, including cautious bullish for rebar, hot-rolled coil, coke, and coking coal; short-term long participation for iron ore; and cautious bearish for ferromanganese and ferrosilicon [1] Core Views of the Report - The overall view is that the steel industry shows some positive changes in supply and demand, but there are still uncertainties and limitations. Different products have different supply and demand situations and price trends [1][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - Rebar: Rebar's apparent demand improves month-on-month, production decreases slightly, and inventory starts to decline. However, the speed of inventory reduction needs further observation. The Tangshan production restriction news provides a boost, but it is expected to be only a temporary impact. The high level of hot metal production keeps the overall steel supply high. The downstream demand for construction steel has not improved significantly, and the real estate and infrastructure sectors still have a negative impact. The supply and demand driving force is limited, and it may operate within a range in the short term [1][4][5] - Hot-rolled Coil: The apparent demand for hot-rolled coil decreases, production and inventory increase slightly, and the overall change is small. The supply and demand are relatively stable with few contradictions. The high level of hot metal production keeps the overall steel demand weak, and there is a lack of upward driving force on the supply and demand side. It may also operate within a range in the short term [1][4][5] Iron Ore - Iron ore's fundamentals are strong due to the increase in hot metal production, the recovery of foreign ore arrivals, and the pre-National Day steel mill restocking. However, the driving force is insufficient, and the upside space is limited. Short-term long participation is recommended [1][6][7] Coke - Coke has started the first round of price increases. Coke enterprises have decent profits, and spot production is relatively stable. The hot metal production increases slightly month-on-month and remains at a high level, resulting in high raw material demand. Coke's supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it follows coking coal to operate within a range. A cautious bullish view is recommended [1][10][11] Coking Coal - The energy bureau's inspection of coal overproduction has started to take effect, with some coal mines shutting down for rectification. The current domestic coking coal production is significantly lower than the same period last year, resulting in a tight supply, but there are expectations of a market recovery. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is at a high level, and imports are running at a high level. The hot metal production increases slightly, and the high absolute level ensures raw material demand. There are few short-term supply and demand contradictions, but supply-side policies are sometimes disruptive. It operates strongly within a range in a positive atmosphere. A cautious bullish view is recommended [1][14][15] Ferrous Alloys - Ferromanganese: The supply and demand of ferromanganese both decrease month-on-month. The total inventory of sample enterprises is 198,900 tons, an increase of 32,100 tons month-on-month. The final tender price of a landmark steel mill in September is 6,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared to August. Overall, the supply and demand tend to be loose, and the cost side strongly supports the price. There may be short-term correction pressure, and cautious long chasing is advised [1][17][18] - Ferrosilicon: The supply and demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is not prominent. The total inventory of sample enterprises this week is 63,390 tons, a decrease of 6,550 tons month-on-month. The cost side still provides some support for the price in the short term, and the market may follow the coal price to operate within a range [1][17][18]