Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Group 2: Report Core Views - For coking coal, the market is in a stalemate between bulls and bears, and the upward momentum depends on "anti - involution" drivers. The coking coal main contract is expected to maintain range - bound trading in the short term [1]. - For crude oil, the supply pressure remains, and it is advisable to sell at high prices as the concerns about the US economy outweigh the positive impact of the Fed's interest - rate cut, the peak demand season is ending, and the US dollar index rebounds [2]. - For iron ore, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly as the global iron ore shipment volume rebounds, the arrival volume fluctuates slightly, the molten iron output fluctuates narrowly at a high level, and the port inventory is expected to increase [4]. - For rebar, the steel price may fluctuate narrowly in the short term as the "Golden September" steel demand recovers slowly, the high - priced resource transactions are poor, the supply - demand fundamentals improve limitedly, and the market sentiment turns cautious [4]. - For live pigs, the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust at a low level in the short term as the supply exceeds demand, but some regions have stopped falling and stabilized [5]. - For palm oil, it may trade in a range in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see as the domestic supply is loose, but the cost side provides strong support [5]. - For rapeseed meal, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate downward in the short term as the feed demand decreases significantly and the actual new order volume of spot goods is poor [6]. - For rubber, it should be treated with a range - bound view as it is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand, with high overseas raw material prices, continuous destocking of spot inventory, and weakening consumption [7]. - For PTA, the spot market may decline under pressure in the short term, and it is advisable to sell at high prices in the short - term as the terminal performance is mediocre in the traditional peak season, the demand support is insufficient, and the cost side is under pressure [7]. - For methanol, the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see as the domestic methanol start - up rate drops from a high level, the downstream demand recovers, and the port inventory continues to accumulate [8]. - For silver, it is expected to fluctuate downward in the medium term and upward in the long term, and the impact of gold's fluctuations on silver should be noted as the initial jobless claims decline shows economic resilience, but the economic downward pressure is still large [9]. - For gold, it is bearish in the short term, and the medium - and long - term trends need further observation as the Fed's interest - rate cut is implemented, and the Fed's independence is controversial [9]. - For medium - and long - term treasury bonds, they may fluctuate in the short term as the issuance of ultra - long - term treasury bonds increases the bond supply, and the Fed's interest - rate cut may have limited positive effects on the bond market [10]. - For soda ash, the 01 contract is expected to trade in a range in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or buy on dips as the domestic soda ash market stabilizes, the manufacturer's inventory decreases from a high level, and the downstream demand is stable [12]. - For plastics, the L2601 contract is expected to trade in a range in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or buy on dips as the LLDPE price is stable, the production enterprise inventory decreases, the supply side starts at a high level, and the downstream start - up rate is expected to rise [13]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Coking Coal - Mysteel statistics show that the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines is 84.7%, a 1.9% month - on - month increase. The daily average output of raw coal is 190,000 tons, a 44,000 - ton increase; the raw coal inventory is 4.7 million tons, a 32,000 - ton decrease. The daily average output of clean coal is 76,100 tons, a 33,000 - ton increase; the clean coal inventory is 2.328 million tons, a 217,000 - ton decrease [1]. Crude Oil - As of July 2025, the OECD commercial inventory is 2.761 billion barrels, a 2.4 - million - barrel increase from the previous month. Compared with the same period last year, it is 66.5 million barrels less, 128.5 million barrels less than the average of the past five years, and 208.6 million barrels less than the average from 2015 - 2019. The freight rate of large oil tankers soared to the highest level in more than two years on September 18, and the freight rate index (TD3C) of the key route from the Middle East to China reached W108, a nearly 150% increase from the beginning of the year [2]. Iron Ore - From September 8 - 14, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China is 2.3923 million tons, a 180,600 - ton decrease; at 45 ports, it is 2.3623 million tons, an 85,700 - ton decrease; at six northern ports, it is 1.245 million tons, a 75,000 - ton decrease [4]. Rebar - As of the week ending September 18, the rebar output is 206,450 tons, a 54,800 - ton decrease from last week, a 2.59% decline; the factory inventory is 165,070 tons, a 15,600 - ton decrease, a 0.94% decline; the social inventory is 485,210 tons, a 20,200 - ton decrease, a 0.41% decline; the apparent demand is 210,030 tons, an 119,600 - ton increase, a 6.04% increase [4]. Live Pigs - On September 18, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" is 117.90, the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index is 118.67. The average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market is 19.55 yuan/kg, a 0.9% decrease from the previous day; the egg price is 8.40 yuan/kg, a 1.6% increase [5]. Palm Oil - In August, China's palm oil imports are 340,000 tons, a 16.5% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the imports are 1.59 million tons, a 13.8% year - on - year decrease. In August, China's soybean oil imports are 100,000 tons, a 113.9% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the imports are 19 tons, an 8.6% year - on - year decrease [5]. Rapeseed Meal - In August, China's imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil are 140,000 tons, an 18.7% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the imports are 1.45 million tons, a 24.1% year - on - year increase. From January to July 2025, China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are 1.9756 million tons, accounting for 94.8% of the total rapeseed imports [6]. Rubber - The price of Thai raw material glue is 56.2 Thai baht/kg, and the cup - lump price is 51.65 Thai baht/kg. The price of Hainan glue for whole - milk production is 14,500 yuan/ton, and for concentrated latex production is 16,300 yuan/ton. In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reach 650,000 tons, a 5.1% year - on - year increase. In August 2025, China's rubber tire production is 102.954 million pieces, a 1.5% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the production is 795.467 million pieces, a 1.6% year - on - year increase [6][7]. PTA - The PTA social inventory is 3.3091 million tons, a 24,200 - ton decrease from the previous statistical period. The PTA capacity utilization rate is 77.29%, and the polyester comprehensive capacity utilization rate is around 88.0% [7]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,247 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan/ton decrease. The domestic weekly methanol capacity utilization rate is 79.91%, a 4.68% decrease. The 1.8 - million - ton/year methanol plant of Shenhua Xinjiang is expected to end maintenance this week. The total downstream capacity utilization rate is 71.87%, a 2.2% weekly increase. The sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1.5578 million tons, a 7,500 - ton weekly increase. The sample production enterprise inventory is 340,500 tons, a 2,100 - ton weekly decrease. The sample enterprise orders to be delivered are 233,800 tons, a 16,900 - ton weekly decrease [8]. Silver - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years, with an expected 240,000 and a previous value revised from 263,000 to 264,000. The number of continuous unemployment benefit claimants remains above the key level of 1.9 million, indicating some pressure in the labor market [9]. Gold - On the 18th local time, the US government requested the US Supreme Court to allow President Trump to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte publicly accused Cook in August of declaring two properties as her "primary residence" to obtain more favorable mortgage rates and submitted relevant criminal charges to the Department of Justice [9]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - The second re - issuance of China's ultra - long - term special treasury bonds (Phase 4) in 2025 has completed the tendering process. After the issuance, the overall issuance scale of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds this year has reached 1.148 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 88.3% [10]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash is 1,288 yuan/ton, and the price has been relatively stable recently. The weekly soda ash output is 745,700 tons, a 2.02% month - on - month decrease; the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.7556 million tons, a 2.33% weekly decrease. The float glass start - up rate is 76.01%, unchanged from the previous week. The national average float glass price is 1,166 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan/ton increase from the previous day. The total inventory of the national float glass sample enterprises is 60.908 million weight boxes, a 1.1% month - on - month decrease [11][12]. Plastics - The mainstream price of North China LLDPE is 7,296 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The weekly LLDPE output is 295,800 tons, a 3.21% weekly increase; the production enterprise inventory is 161,200 tons, a 0.86% weekly decrease. The daily production profit of oil - based LLDPE is - 334 yuan/ton. The average start - up rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increases by 1.6% weekly, among which the overall start - up rate of agricultural films increases by 2.6% and that of PE packaging films increases by 0.5% [13].
今日早评-20250919
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-09-19 02:20