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股指期货将偏强震荡,黄金、白银、PVC期货将偏强震荡,原油、天然橡胶期货将偏弱震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-19 02:17

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis such as the golden section line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the trend of today's futures main - contract prices. It expects that stock index futures, gold, silver, and PVC futures will have a strong - side shock, while crude oil and natural rubber futures will have a weak - side shock. Ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures will have a wide - range shock, and other futures will either have a shock consolidation or a wide - range shock [1][2][3][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Forecast - Stock Index Futures: On September 19, it is expected to have a strong - side shock. For IF2512, resistance levels are 4495 and 4550 points, and support levels are 4413 and 4382 points; for IH2512, resistance levels are 2955 and 2981 points, and support levels are 2873 and 2855 points; for IC2512, resistance levels are 7150 and 7200 points, and support levels are 6881 and 6785 points; for IM2512, resistance levels are 7316 and 7460 points, and support levels are 7131 and 7086 points [2]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On September 19, the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract T2512 is likely to have a wide - range shock, with resistance levels at 108.17 and 108.32 yuan, and support levels at 107.97 and 107.91 yuan. The thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 is also likely to have a wide - range shock, with resistance levels at 116.1 and 116.5 yuan, and support levels at 115.2 and 115.0 yuan [3][35][40]. - Precious Metal Futures: On September 19, the gold futures main contract AU2512 is likely to have a strong - side shock, with resistance levels at 834.0 and 838.1 yuan/gram, and support levels at 824.9 and 820.0 yuan/gram. The silver futures main contract AG2512 is also likely to have a strong - side shock, with resistance levels at 9944 and 9999 yuan/kilogram, and support levels at 9835 and 9799 yuan/kilogram [3][43][47]. - Base Metal Futures: On September 19, the copper futures main contract CU2511 is likely to have a shock consolidation, with support levels at 79400 and 79200 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 79900 and 80000 yuan/ton. The aluminum futures main contract AL2511 is likely to have a shock consolidation, with support levels at 20700 and 20650 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 20920 and 21000 yuan/ton. The alumina futures main contract AO2601 is likely to have a shock consolidation, with resistance levels at 2960 and 2989 yuan/ton, and support levels at 2919 and 2900 yuan/ton [3][50][55]. - Energy and Chemical Futures: On September 19, the crude oil futures main contract SC2511 is likely to have a weak - side shock, with support levels at 485 and 480 yuan/barrel, and resistance levels at 497 and 500 yuan/barrel. The PVC futures main contract V2601 is likely to have a strong - side shock and will attack the resistance levels of 4975 and 5000 yuan/ton, with support levels at 4923 and 4891 yuan/ton. The natural rubber futures main contract RU2601 is likely to have a weak - side shock and will test the support levels of 15330 and 15210 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 15670 and 15750 yuan/ton [4][5][92][97][99]. - Building Materials and Steel Futures: On September 19, the rebar futures main contract RB2601 is likely to have a shock consolidation, with support levels at 3123 and 3101 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 3166 and 3180 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil futures main contract HC2601 is likely to have a weak - side shock, with support levels at 3335 and 3314 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 3370 and 3388 yuan/ton. The iron ore futures main contract I2601 is likely to have a wide - range shock, with resistance levels at 809 and 815 yuan/ton, and support levels at 796 and 789 yuan/ton. The coking coal futures main contract JM2601 is likely to have a wide - range shock, with support levels at 1188 and 1166 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 1223 and 1238 yuan/ton. The glass futures main contract FG601 is likely to have a weak - side shock, with support levels at 1194 and 1176 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 1212 and 1226 yuan/ton. The soda ash futures main contract SA601 is likely to have a shock consolidation, with resistance levels at 1318 and 1325 yuan/ton, and support levels at 1297 and 1289 yuan/ton [3][4][67][72][74]. - Lithium Carbonate Futures: On September 19, the lithium carbonate futures main contract LC2511 is likely to have a wide - range shock, with resistance levels at 74100 and 75100 yuan/ton, and support levels at 72000 and 70300 yuan/ton [62]. 2. Macro - Information and Trading Tips - Trade - related: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated its stance on the TikTok issue and the EU's anti - subsidy tax on Chinese electric vehicles. It also mentioned the anti - dumping investigation on EU pork products [6][7]. - Science and Technology Investment: In the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China's R & D investment increased, with the total R & D investment in 2024 exceeding 3.6 trillion yuan, a 48% increase from 2020. The R & D investment intensity reached 2.68%, exceeding the average level of EU countries. The DeepSeek - R1 reasoning model research paper was on the cover of "Nature", marking China's AI technology getting the highest recognition in the international scientific community [7][8]. - Business and Economy: The "2025 China's Top 500 Service Enterprises" were released, with the total operating income of the short - listed enterprises in 2024 reaching 51.1 trillion yuan. Beijing and Shanghai announced the upper and lower limits of social security contribution bases for 2025. The Shanghai government plans to support high - growth enterprises, offering up to 100,000 yuan in rewards for gazelle enterprises and up to 200,000 yuan for unicorn enterprises [7]. - International Cooperation and Investment: The US and the UK signed a science and technology cooperation agreement. BP plans to invest over 3.6 billion pounds in the US annually for the next five years, and CoreWeave will invest 1.5 billion pounds in the UK [8]. - Employment and Unemployment: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years. However, the number of continued unemployment claims remained above 1.9 million, indicating some pressure in the labor market [9]. - US Government Fund: The US government is promoting a $5 - billion mineral investment fund [9]. - UK Central Bank Policy: The Bank of England maintained the interest rate at 4% and reduced the quantitative tightening scale from 100 billion pounds to 70 billion pounds in the next 12 months [9]. 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - Iron Ore Index: The Iron Ore Working Committee of the China Iron and Steel Association arranged the launch of the import iron ore port spot price index [9]. - International Precious Metal Futures: On September 18, international precious metal futures generally closed down. COMEX gold futures fell 1.07% to $3678.2 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.12% to $42.1 per ounce [10]. - International Crude Oil Futures: On September 18, international oil prices fell slightly. The US crude oil main contract fell 0.61% to $63.31 per barrel, and the Brent crude oil main contract fell 0.73% to $66.97 per barrel [10]. - London Base Metals: On September 18, most London base metals fell. LME tin fell 1.73% to $33750 per ton, LME zinc fell 1.04% to $2913 per ton, LME copper fell 0.50% to $9946 per ton, LME nickel fell 0.45% to $15335 per ton, LME lead fell 0.42% to $2004 per ton, and LME aluminum rose 0.82% to $2705 per ton [10].