国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20250919

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - Gold: The FOMC meeting was in line with expectations. [2] - Silver: It will undergo a volatile adjustment. [2][5] - Copper: The increase in domestic spot premiums restricts price declines. [2][10] - Zinc: It will experience a weak and volatile trend. [2][13] - Lead: The decrease in inventory supports the price. [2][16] - Tin: It will trade within a range. [2][19] - Aluminum: It will trade within a range. [2][24] - Alumina: The oversupply situation persists. [2][24] - Cast aluminum alloy: There is cost support. [2][24] - Nickel: The contradictions in the smelting end are not prominent. Attention should be paid to the news - related risks in the ore end. [2][27] - Stainless steel: There is a game between long - and short - term logics, and the steel price may fluctuate. [2][27] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Gold - Fundamentals: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 yesterday was 824.10, with a daily decline of 1.31%, and the night - session closing price was 828.08, with a decline of 0.71%. The trend strength is 0. [5][8] - Macroeconomic News: The Bank of England maintained interest rates and slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest decline in nearly four years. Overseas investors' holdings of US Treasury bonds reached a new high in July. [5][9] Silver - Fundamentals: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 yesterday was 9808, with a daily decline of 0.97%, and the night - session closing price was 9902.00, with a decline of 0.06%. The trend strength is 0. [5][8] - Macroeconomic News: Similar to gold, including the Bank of England's decision, US jobless claims, and US Treasury bond holdings. [5][9] Base Metals Copper - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract yesterday was 79,580, with a daily decline of 1.22%, and the night - session closing price was 79660, with an increase of 0.10%. The trend strength is 0. [10][12] - Macroeconomic and Industry News: The number of initial jobless claims in the US dropped significantly. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is still shut down for rescue. Panama will negotiate with First Quantum Minerals on the resumption of the CP copper mine. Codelco and Escondida's copper production increased year - on - year in July. China's copper production is expected to decline in September. [10][12] Zinc - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22045, with a decline of 1.05%. The trend strength is - 1. [13][15] - News: The Bank of England maintained interest rates and slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening. [14] Lead - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17145, with an increase of 0.26%. The trend strength is 0. [16][17] - News: The number of initial jobless claims in the US dropped significantly. [17] Tin - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 269,100, with a decline of 1.26%, and the night - session closing price was 267,840, with a decline of 0.89%. The trend strength is 0. [20][23] - Macroeconomic and Industry News: Similar to other metals, including Bank of England's decision, US jobless claims, and other news. [21][22] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20785, down 125. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2931, down 6. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20320, down 140. The trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0. [24][26] - News: Overseas investors' holdings of US Treasury bonds reached a new high in July. [26] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,940, down 850. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,875, down 60. The trend strength of nickel and stainless steel is 0. [27][33] - Industry News: The Indonesian CNI nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage. Environmental violations were found in the IMIP. Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period. The approved RKAB production in 2025 is higher than in 2024. Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia have suspended production. Indonesian mining companies need to resubmit the 2026 RKAB. A steel mill in Shandong has started maintenance. The Indonesian president will punish illegal mining. The Indonesian forestry working group has taken over a nickel - mining area. [27][32]