镍、不锈钢产业风险管理日报-20250919

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures markets showed a weak intraday oscillation. After the expected interest rate cut, the overall market was sluggish, and there were no significant changes in the fundamentals. There were concerns about the supply of nickel ore, while the new energy sector provided support. The stainless - steel market had limited actual transactions, and the overall market momentum was calm. The Fed's interest rate cut did not exceed expectations, leading to a weak overall market [4]. 3. Key Points by Category Price and Volatility Forecast - Shanghai Nickel: The price range is predicted to be 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3]. - Stainless Steel: The price range is predicted to be 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.80% and a historical percentile of 1.7% [3]. Risk Management Strategies - Shanghai Nickel - Inventory Management: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - Procurement Management: For future production procurement needs, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [3]. - Stainless Steel - Inventory Management: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, sell stainless - steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [4]. - Procurement Management: For future production procurement needs, buy stainless - steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [4]. Core Contradictions - Market Trends: Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel futures oscillated weakly intraday. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the overall market was weak, and the fundamentals remained unchanged [4]. - Supply - side Factors: Indonesia issued the second - phase benchmark price for nickel ore, and there were concerns about supply due to government interventions and upcoming quota approvals. The new energy sector provided support, and cobalt price increases drove up the prices of MHP and nickel salts [4]. - Demand - side Factors: Nickel - iron quotes were firm, but high - price transactions declined. Stainless - steel spot sales tried to stimulate transactions by reducing prices, but actual transactions were limited [4]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - Likely Positive Factors: Indonesia plans to revise the HPM formula, shorten the nickel - ore quota period, continuous de - stocking of stainless steel, and the takeover of some nickel - mining areas by the Indonesian forestry working group [6]. - Likely Negative Factors: High pure - nickel inventory, Sino - US tariff disturbances, uncertainties in EU stainless - steel import tariffs, the implementation of anti - dumping duties on Chinese stainless - steel thick plates in South Korea, and weak stainless - steel spot transactions [6]. Market Data - Nickel Market - Futures Prices: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract was 120,940 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M was 15,335 US dollars/ton. Some contracts showed price declines [6]. - Inventory: Domestic social nickel inventory was 41,055 tons (up 1,125 tons), LME nickel inventory was 228,450 tons (down 18 tons), nickel - pig - iron inventory was 28,652 tons (down 614.5 tons) [7]. - Stainless - Steel Market - Futures Prices: The latest price of the stainless - steel main - continuous contract was 12,875 yuan/ton, and some contracts showed price declines [6]. - Inventory: Stainless - steel social inventory was 897.2 tons (down 5.4 tons), and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 5,119 tons (a 5.37% decline) [6][7]. Industry News - Ningde Times and Antam are promoting the construction of a nickel - integrated smelter [8].