美联储如期降息后美元反弹且需求偏弱，有色回吐近期涨幅

Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed's expected interest rate cut, the US dollar rebounded and demand was weak, causing the non - ferrous metals to give back recent gains. In the medium and short term, the weak US dollar and supply disruptions support prices, while weak terminal demand expectations limit the upside. It is expected that basic metals will generally maintain a pattern of oscillating upward. In the long term, the expectation of potential incremental stimulus policies in China and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin support the prices of basic metals [2]. Summary by Variety Copper - Viewpoint: After the Fed's interest rate cut, copper prices had a phased decline. In the medium term, it is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. - Analysis: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2025. Freeport - McMoRan's Indonesian mine suspended operations. In August, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The spot premium of electrolytic copper rebounded, and copper inventories increased. The "770 - Document" led to production cuts in the recycled copper market. - Logic: Macro - wise, the market's optimistic sentiment declined after the interest rate cut. On the supply side, mine supply disruptions increased, and recycled copper production cuts were expected. On the demand side, the peak season had arrived, but inventory reduction was not obvious. - Outlook: Copper supply constraints remain, and with increased supply disruptions and a low - level US dollar index, copper is expected to show an oscillating and slightly stronger pattern [8][9]. Alumina - Viewpoint: The weak fundamentals have not improved significantly, and alumina prices are oscillating weakly. - Analysis: Alumina spot prices declined in multiple regions on September 18. In August 2025, China's alumina exports increased year - on - year, and aluminum bauxite imports increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. Alumina warehouse receipts decreased. - Logic: Macro sentiment interfered with the market. Fundamentally, refinery profits shrank, but raw materials were relatively abundant. Operating capacity continued to reach new highs, and the market was in an oversupply situation. - Outlook: In the short term, it is expected to be oscillating and slightly weaker, with prices under pressure. Consider short - selling on rallies or waiting and watching, and also pay attention to the 10 - 1, 2 - 3 reverse arbitrage opportunities [10][12]. Aluminum - Viewpoint: After the interest rate cut, aluminum prices declined. - Analysis: On September 18, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased, and inventories of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods changed. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts remained unchanged. Relevant policies were issued, and a company's new project is expected to be put into production in 2026. - Logic: In the short term, the interest rate cut was in line with expectations, and risk - aversion sentiment increased. On the supply side, replacement production capacity was put into operation, and on the demand side, the peak season was approaching, but the inventory reduction inflection point was not clear. - Outlook: In the short term, it is expected to be range - bound. In the medium term, supply growth is limited, and demand remains resilient, with the price center expected to rise [13][14]. Aluminum Alloy - Viewpoint: As the first warehouse receipt registration approaches, the market is oscillating. - Analysis: On September 18, the price of Baotai ADC12 decreased, and the price difference between Baotai ADC12 and AOO aluminum changed. The EU may impose a tax on scrap metal exports, and most die - casting enterprises plan to have holidays in October. - Logic: On the cost side, scrap aluminum supply was tight, providing cost support. On the supply side, the start - up rate increased marginally, and on the demand side, there was marginal improvement, but the peak - season performance remains to be seen. - Outlook: In the short term, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are oscillating at a low level. In the future, there is room for an increase, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities can be considered [14][15]. Zinc - Viewpoint: After the Fed's interest rate cut, zinc prices declined with the non - ferrous metals. - Analysis: On September 18, the spot premium of zinc in different regions changed, and SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased. The CZSPT released the import zinc concentrate processing fee guidance for the end of the fourth quarter of 2025. - Logic: Macro - wise, the interest rate cut was in line with expectations, and the non - ferrous metals sector declined. On the supply side, zinc ore supply was loose, and smelters' profitability was good. On the demand side, it was in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons, and demand expectations were average. - Outlook: In September, zinc ingot production will remain high, and inventories may continue to accumulate. Zinc prices are expected to be oscillating [16][17]. Lead - Viewpoint: The supply of recycled lead decreased, and lead prices are oscillating. - Analysis: On September 18, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead increased. SMM's lead ingot price increased, and the spot premium decreased. Lead ingot social inventories increased slightly, and Shanghai lead warehouse receipts decreased. - Logic: On the spot side, the spot discount and the price difference between primary and recycled lead increased, and warehouse receipts decreased. On the supply side, recycled lead production decreased, and on the demand side, it was in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons, and the lead - acid battery start - up rate was high. - Outlook: The macro - environment is positive. Lead demand is stable, and supply may tighten slightly. The supply - demand gap may continue, and lead prices are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [17][20]. Nickel - Viewpoint: LME nickel inventories increased significantly, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. - Analysis: On September 18, LME nickel inventories decreased slightly, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased. The price of high - nickel pig iron was firm, and relevant company events had little impact on production. - Logic: Market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. Nickel supply is in excess, and inventories are accumulating. - Outlook: In the short term, nickel prices are oscillating widely, and in the long term, it is advisable to wait and watch [20][22]. Stainless Steel - Viewpoint: After the Fed's interest rate cut, stainless steel is operating weakly. - Analysis: Stainless steel futures warehouse receipts decreased, the spot premium of stainless steel changed, and the average price of high - nickel pig iron increased. - Logic: The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron are stable. Stainless steel production increased in August, and inventory reduction was limited. - Outlook: Be vigilant about the possibility of production cuts by steel mills. Stainless steel is expected to be range - bound in the short term [24]. Tin - Viewpoint: Shanghai tin inventories have been declining continuously, and tin prices are oscillating. - Analysis: On September 18, LME tin warehouse receipts remained unchanged, Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased, and the spot price of tin decreased. - Logic: The supply side is the core concern. The复产 of the Wa State mine is slow, and African tin production is unstable. Supply is tight, but terminal demand is weakening, and inventories are rising. - Outlook: Tin prices are expected to be oscillating due to tight supply at the mine end [25].