华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250919

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center of gravity moving downward and weak operation. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to adjust at a high level in the short term, with the macro "boot" landing and the inventory still slightly accumulating [1][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices. The view is that it will move in a volatile and consolidating manner. Key factors to watch include macro policies and downstream demand [3] - During the Spring Festival, short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will have a production halt from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of building steel production. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have or will stop production, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the halt [2] Real Estate - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] Aluminum and Alumina - The price of aluminum ingots was consolidating at a high level yesterday. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected on Wednesday, but analysts have different interpretations of the Fed's signals. The Fed's dot - plot points to a steady easing pace [2] - The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation. The domestic alumina operating capacity is at a high level, the import window is open, and the inventory is high. As of Thursday, the national metallurgical - grade alumina's total built - in capacity is 110.32 million tons/year, the operating total capacity is 92.33 million tons/year, and the weekly national alumina operating rate increased by 0.92 percentage points to 83.69% [3] - The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants is high, and the spot procurement is inactive. The demand side shows signs of recovery, with the overall starting rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increasing by 0.4 percentage points to 62.1% last week. On September 18, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 638,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from Monday and 13,000 tons from last Thursday. Whether the inventory decline inflection point can appear in late September needs further observation [3]