国新国证期货早报-20250919

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - On September 18, most of the analyzed futures varieties showed downward trends or were in a state of shock adjustment. The market was affected by various factors such as policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic events like the Fed's interest rate cut [1][2][3]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On September 18, A - share three major indexes collectively declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.15% to 3831.66 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.06% to 13075.66 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.64% to 3095.85 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 31352 billion yuan, a significant increase of 7584 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index weakened, closing at 4498.11, a decrease of 52.91 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 18, the coke weighted index fluctuated and sorted, closing at 1722.8, a decrease of 17.7. The coking coal weighted index adjusted downward, closing at 1212.7 yuan, a decrease of 23.5. Coke producers' profits are okay, and after the end of production - limiting constraints, the start - up rate has rebounded. Steel mills' blast furnaces maintain the momentum of operation, and the real demand is supported. For coking coal, after the end of policy disturbances, domestic coal supply has recovered, and imports from Mongolia have returned to normal. Downstream enterprises' start - up rates have rebounded from low levels [1][2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract declined on September 18. In the second half of August, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased by 18.21% year - on - year to 387 million tons. India plans to resume sugar exports in the new sugar - crushing season starting from October 2025, which may put downward pressure on global sugar prices [2]. Rubber - Due to the decrease in rainfall in the Thai production area and the adjustment of spot quotes, as well as the Fed's interest rate cut and concerns about the US economic outlook, the Shanghai rubber futures declined significantly on September 18. From January to July 2025, US tire imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year, and China's synthetic rubber production in August 2025 increased by 7.4% year - on - year [3]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 18, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower, affected by the strengthening of the US dollar and the pressure of US soybean harvest. The market expects the US Department of Agriculture to lower the US soybean yield per unit in the next report. Domestically, on September 18, the soybean meal M2601 contract closed at 2993 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.3%. The supply of domestic soybean meal is abundant, and the price is in a downward adjustment trend [3][4]. Live Pigs - On September 18, the LH2511 contract closed at 12830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.31%. Recently, the enthusiasm of the breeding end for slaughter has increased, and the supply of standard pigs has further increased. The consumption demand has slowly recovered, but the short - term demand side is difficult to form a strong support [4]. Palm Oil - On September 18, the palm oil futures price continued to decline within the range, and the closing price of the main contract P2601 was 9304, a decrease of 1.27%. In August, China's palm oil imports were 340,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%. From January to August, imports were 1.59 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.8% [5]. Shanghai Copper - After the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September, the market sentiment weakened, and the Shanghai copper price fell significantly. The supply - demand pattern is weak on both sides, but the supply of smelters may be more affected, and the downstream demand has marginally increased. The pre - National Day inventory replenishment may support the price [5]. Cotton - On the night of September 18, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13715 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory decreased by 177 lots compared with the previous trading day. The US dollar index weakened, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut increased [5]. Iron Ore - On September 18, the iron ore 2601 contract closed down 0.12% at 800 yuan. The global shipment volume of iron ore has rebounded, and the arrival volume has continued to decline. Steel mills still have the demand for replenishment, but due to the emission reduction requirements in Tangshan, the short - term price is in a shock trend [6]. Asphalt - On September 18, the asphalt 2511 contract closed down 0.35% at 3427 yuan. The asphalt supply continues to be low, the inventory continues to decline, and the demand is still weak. The short - term price is in a shock operation [6]. Logs - On September 18, the 2511 log contract opened at 809, closed at 801.5, and increased its position by 321 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. In August, log imports decreased by 24% year - on - year. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and there is a game between strong expectations and weak reality [6]. Steel - On September 18, rb2601 was reported at 3147 yuan/ton, and hc2601 was reported at 3354 yuan/ton. The demand for steel in September has recovered slowly, and the transaction of high - priced resources is not good. After the speculation of coking coal and coke futures, they have entered the adjustment stage, and the price of raw fuels is still high. In the short term, steel prices may fluctuate weakly [7]. Alumina - On September 18, ao2601 was reported at 2931 yuan/ton. The alumina market is still in a state of oversupply. The domestic production capacity is high, imports are increasing, and the inventory is also high. Electrolytic aluminum plants' procurement is negative. In the short term, the spot price may continue to decline [7]. Shanghai Aluminum - On September 18, al2511 was reported at 20785 yuan/ton. After the Fed's interest rate cut, market uncertainty increased, and the risk - aversion sentiment rose. The supply of aluminum ingots is normal, and the social inventory is accumulating. The demand has slightly improved, and the price continues to decline [8].