铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250919

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a daily review of various commodity markets, including macro - economic conditions, precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and construction materials. Overall, most commodities are expected to show a trend of volatile adjustment in the short - term, with different influencing factors for each commodity[2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro - Overseas: US initial jobless claims dropped to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000, the largest decline in four years. The Bank of England slowed the pace of quantitative tightening and kept the interest rate at 4%. NVIDIA invested $5 billion in Intel, boosting the risk appetite of the US market. The three major US stock indexes hit new highs, the US dollar index rose to 97.4, and the US Treasury yields also increased. Gold, copper, and oil all closed down[2]. - Domestic: The Ministry of Science and Technology stated that humanoid robots are accelerating their implementation in scenarios such as automobile manufacturing, logistics handling, and power inspection, laying the foundation for a trillion - level industry. The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund is accelerating its establishment, expected to leverage nearly 1 trillion yuan of local and social capital. The A - share market rose and then fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high of 3899.96 and then adjusting by nearly 100 points. More than 4,000 stocks in the two markets closed down, and the trading volume increased to 3.17 trillion yuan. The stock market is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short - term, and the bond market remains weak[3]. 2. Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures fell 1.07% to $3,678.2 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.12% to $42.1 per ounce. The market is digesting the mixed signals from the Fed's September interest - rate meeting, and some funds are taking profits, causing precious metals prices to decline. It is expected that precious metals prices will continue to adjust in the short - term[4][5]. 3. Base Metals - Copper: The Shanghai copper main contract declined, and LME copper retreated to around $9,900 for support. The spot market trading was weak. The LME inventory decreased to 149,000 tons. Considering the political interference in the Fed and the industrial investment in copper projects, it is expected that copper prices will maintain volatile adjustment in the short - term[6][7]. - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,785 yuan/ton, down 0.74%. The LME aluminum closed at $2,705 per ton, up 0.58%. The aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly, but the increase rate slowed down. It is expected that the inventory inflection point is approaching, and aluminum prices will show a favorable volatile trend[8]. - Zinc: The Shanghai zinc main contract fluctuated narrowly during the day and traded sideways at night. The decline in US initial jobless claims and the rise in the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index alleviated recession concerns, but the dollar's rebound pressured zinc prices. The domestic terminal consumption improved slightly, and the social inventory decreased. It is expected that zinc prices will continue to adjust, but the adjustment space is limited[10]. - Lead: The Shanghai lead main contract fluctuated strongly during the day and opened high and closed low at night. The social inventory decreased due to factors such as refinery maintenance and downstream procurement. However, the supply pressure may increase marginally. It is expected that lead prices will maintain high - level narrow - range volatility[11]. - Tin: The Shanghai tin main contract fluctuated weakly during the day and continued to be weak at night. The LME inventory remained at 2,645 tons, and the domestic consumption improvement was limited. It is expected that the inventory will continue to rise, and tin prices will continue to be weak in the short - term[12]. - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon main contract fluctuated strongly. The supply side maintained a slight contraction, and the demand side showed a tight - balance expectation. The social inventory increased slightly. It is expected that industrial silicon prices will maintain volatility in the short - term[14][15]. - Nickel: Nickel prices fluctuated weakly. The Fed's interest - rate decision was in line with market expectations, and the macro - positive factors were exhausted, driving nickel prices down. However, there may be moderately loose domestic monetary policies, and nickel prices may rebound. The industry showed no significant changes, and the demand for nickel iron had a tendency to rise but with limited results[18][19]. 4. Energy - Crude oil prices fluctuated strongly. Trump's statement during his visit to the UK strengthened the expectation of oversupply, but his team may hope to keep oil prices at a relatively high level. In the short - term, due to the changing geopolitical situation, oil prices lack a trend - setting guide and are expected to maintain volatility[20]. 5. Construction Materials - Soda Ash and Glass: The soda ash main contract fluctuated, and the glass main contract also fluctuated. The soda ash production decreased slightly, and the inventory remained unchanged. The glass supply was stable, and the inventory decreased slightly. There is an opportunity to focus on the convergence of cross - variety price differences[21][22]. - Steel and Iron Ore: The steel futures fluctuated slightly down. The output of the five major steel products decreased slightly, the apparent demand increased, and the inventory increased but at a slower rate. The iron ore futures fluctuated. The demand was resilient, and the supply pressure was not large. It is expected that both steel and iron ore prices will show a volatile trend[24][25]. 6. Agricultural Products - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The soybean meal 01 contract and the rapeseed meal 01 contract both closed down. The US soybean export sales were in line with expectations, but the overall progress was slow. The domestic soybean meal inventory is expected to continue to increase, and the import cost support weakened. It is expected that the domestic soybean and rapeseed meal prices will fluctuate weakly in the short - term[26][27]. - Palm Oil: The palm oil 01 contract, the soybean oil 01 contract, and the rapeseed oil 01 contract all closed down. The decline in the US initial jobless claims and the fall in oil prices, along with the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy, led to a large - scale decline in domestic commodity prices. However, the upcoming production - reduction season in the origin may support prices. It is expected that palm oil prices will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term[28][29].