宏源期货：PX&PTA&PR早评-20250919

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that PX will operate weakly, PTA will operate in a volatile manner, and PR will also operate in a volatile manner. The PX view is rated -1, while the PTA and PR views are rated 0 [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - Upstream: On September 18, 2025, the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil futures decreased by 0.75%. The spot price of naphtha in CFR Japan dropped by 1.56%, and the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) in FOB Korea decreased by 0.67%. The spot price of para - xylene (PX) in CFR China Main Port fell by 1.10% [1]. - PTA Price: The closing price of the CZCE TA main - contract decreased by 0.98%, while the settlement price increased by 0.21%. The spot price of domestic PTA increased by 0.09%, and the CCFEI price index of domestic and foreign PTA also showed slight increases [1]. - PX Price: The closing price of the CZCE PX main - contract decreased by 1.30%, and the settlement price decreased by 0.27%. The domestic spot price of PX remained unchanged, and the PXN spread increased by 0.15%, while the PX - MX spread decreased by 2.92% [1]. - PR Price: The closing price of the CZCE PR main - contract decreased by 0.89%, and the settlement price increased by 0.38%. The market prices of polyester bottle - chips in the East and South China markets decreased [1]. - Downstream Price: The CCFEI price indices of most polyester products remained stable or decreased slightly, such as the price index of polyester bottle - chips decreased by 0.51% [2]. Operating Conditions - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain decreased by 1.59%. The PTA factory load rate remained unchanged, the polyester factory load rate increased by 0.22%, the bottle - chip factory load rate remained unchanged, and the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms increased by 2.01% [1]. - The sales rate of polyester filament decreased by 1.61%, the sales rate of polyester staple fiber increased by 8.96%, and the sales rate of polyester chips decreased by 33.45% [1]. Device Information - The 1.2 - million - ton PTA device of Ningbo Taihua stopped operating on September 5 [2]. Important News and Market Analysis - PX: On September 17, due to Ukraine's harassment of Baltic ports, Russia's weekly crude oil exports plummeted, and the overall positive impact on the crude oil supply - demand situation was limited. The cost support for PX was insufficient. The domestic PX operating load was at a high level, and some device maintenance plans were postponed. The demand - side PTA factory maintenance expectations increased, and there was only one transaction heard during the day. The supply of PX increased, and although it was the peak season for downstream polyester, the new orders and load did not exceed expectations, and the PXN was expected to operate weakly [2]. - PTA: The fundamentals did not change significantly. The influence of the Fed's interest - rate cut was overdrawn, the crude oil market declined during the session, the sales of polyester filament were flat, and the PTA market increase was limited. The supply of PTA was expected to increase in the short term, and the new PTA device maintenance plans from October to November had limited impact on the current market [2]. - PR: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets decreased. The prices of polyester raw materials PTA and bottle - chip futures first rose and then fell. The supply - side quotations were mostly stable, and some were lowered in the afternoon. The downstream terminals were cautious and the trading atmosphere was cold [2].