镍与不锈钢日评20250919：降息落地，上行驱动不足-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For nickel, on September 18, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated downward, with decreased trading volume and open interest, and LME nickel dropped 0.45%. The spot market had average trading volume, and the basis premium widened. Considering the supply - demand situation and inventory changes, with the Fed's interest rate cut implemented, the nickel fundamentals are weak and there is inventory pressure, so nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1][2]. - For stainless steel, on September 18, the main stainless - steel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated downward, with increased trading volume and open interest; the spot market had weak trading volume, and the basis premium widened. Although the fundamentals are loose, the cost side provides support, so stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Market 3.1.1 Price and Trading Data - On September 18, the closing prices of nickel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) all decreased compared to the previous day, with declines ranging from 840 - 890 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel futures active contract was 81,612 hands (- 9,122), and the open interest was 55,044 hands (- 3,782). LME nickel prices also declined, with the 3 - month nickel official price at 15,280 dollars (- 27 dollars), and the closing price of the electronic trading session at 15,335 dollars [2]. - The price differences between different nickel futures contracts (near - month and far - month) and the basis (spot - futures) showed certain changes. For example, the basis of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price - Shanghai nickel active contract closing price was 830 yuan [2]. 3.1.2 Supply - Demand and Inventory - Supply: Nickel ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival of nickel ore at ports decreased, and port inventories increased. Nickel - iron plants' losses narrowed, with increased domestic production schedules in September and increased production in Indonesia, leading to nickel - iron inventory reduction. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in September, and export profits expanded [2]. - Demand: Ternary material production schedules decreased; stainless - steel plants' production increased; alloy and electroplating demand was stable [2]. - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories decreased, LME inventories decreased, social inventories increased, and bonded - area inventories decreased [2]. 3.1.3 Global Supply - Demand Situation - According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), in July 2025, global refined nickel production was 320,100 tons, consumption was 284,000 tons, with a supply surplus of 36,000 tons. From January to July, global refined nickel production was 2,237,600 tons, consumption was 1,993,400 tons, with a supply surplus of 244,300 tons. In July, global nickel ore production was 350,700 tons, and from January to July, it was 2,326,200 tons [2]. 3.2 Stainless - Steel Market 3.2.1 Price and Trading Data - On September 18, the stainless - steel main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated downward, with a trading volume of 175,834 hands (+ 5,708) and an open interest of 132,228 hands (+ 4,478). The spot market had weak trading volume, and the basis premium widened [2]. - The price differences between different stainless - steel futures contracts (near - month and far - month) and the basis (spot - futures) also changed. For example, the basis of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) average price - active contract was 915 yuan [2]. 3.2.2 Supply - Demand and Inventory - Supply: Stainless - steel production schedules increased in September [2]. - Demand: Terminal demand was weak [2]. - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories decreased, and last week, the 300 - series social inventory was 596,300 tons (- 15,400 tons) [2]. 3.2.3 Cost - High - nickel pig iron prices increased, and high - carbon ferrochrome prices remained flat [2]. 3.3 Investment Strategies - For nickel, the trading strategy is to short at high prices [2]. - For stainless steel, the trading strategy is to wait and see [2].