国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250919

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report offers daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. Each commodity is given a short - term trend judgment such as "oscillating adjustment", "weakly oscillating", etc. [2][5] - The trend intensity of each commodity is also provided, with values ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), helping investors understand the strength of the expected price trends. [10][14] 3. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: The FOMC meeting was in line with expectations. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Yesterday, the closing price of沪金2510 was 824.10, down 1.31%. [2][7][10] - Silver: It is in an oscillating adjustment phase. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of沪银2510 was 9808, down 0.97%. [2][7][10] Base Metals - Copper: The increase in domestic spot premium restricts price decline. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of沪铜主力合约 was 79,580, down 1.22%. [2][12][14] - Zinc: It shows a weakly oscillating trend. The trend intensity is - 1. Yesterday, the closing price of沪锌主力 was 22045, down 1.05%. [2][15][17] - Lead: The reduction in inventory supports the price. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of沪铅主力 was 17145, up 0.26%. [2][18][19] - Tin: It oscillates within a range. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of沪锡主力合约 was 269,100, down 1.26%. [2][21][25] - Aluminum: It oscillates within a range. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of沪铝主力合约 was 20785, down 125. [2][26][28] - Alumina: The surplus situation persists. The trend intensity is 0. [2][26][28] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It is supported by cost. The trend intensity is 0. [2][26][28] - Nickel: The contradictions at the smelting end are not prominent, and attention should be paid to the news - related risks at the ore end. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of沪镍主力 was 120,940, down 850. [2][29][35] - Stainless Steel: There is a game between long - and short - term logics, and the steel price may oscillate. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of不锈钢主力 was 12,875, down 60. [2][29][35] Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: The weekly production reaches a new high, and inventory is being depleted. It oscillates within a range. The trend intensity is 0. [2][36][39] - Industrial Silicon: The main idea is to short at high prices. The trend intensity is - 1. Yesterday, the closing price of Si2511 was 8,905, down 60. [2][40][42] - Polysilicon: The short - term sentiment may cool down. The trend intensity is - 1. Yesterday, the closing price of PS2511 was 53,205, down 285. [2][40][42] - Iron Ore: Expectations are fluctuating, and it oscillates widely. The trend intensity is - 1. Yesterday, the closing price of 12601 was 804.5, up 1.0. [2][43] - Rebar: It oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of RB2601 was 3,147, down 8. [2][45][48] - Hot - Rolled Coil: It oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of HC2601 was 3,354, down 30. [2][46][48] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and it oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of硅铁2511 was 5756, down 10. [2][50][52] - Manganese Silicon: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and it oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of锰硅2511 was 5948, down 14. [2][50][52] - Coke: Expectations are fluctuating, and it oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of J2601 was 1709, down 25.5. [2][53][55] - Coking Coal: Expectations are fluctuating, and it oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of JM2601 was 1203.5, down 29.5. [2][54][55] - Log: It oscillates repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of 2511合约 was 801.5, down 0.9%. [2][56][59] - Para - Xylene: It remains weak in the medium term. [2][60] - PTA: Maintenance increases, processing fees are restored, but it remains weak in the medium term. [2][60] - MEG: Reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 month spread. [2][60] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: There is no obvious driving force for both upward and downward movements, and the main strategy is range - bound operation. [5] - Soybean Oil: Exports have reappeared, and it is recommended to go long on dips. [5] - Soybean Meal: It oscillates at a low level and may rebound from oversold conditions. [5] - Soybean: It oscillates at a low level. [5] - Corn: It oscillates. [5] - Sugar: It oscillates downward. [5] - Cotton: The market is concerned about the situation of new cotton listings. [5] - Egg: The spot market is weak. [5] - Live Pig: Expectations have turned pessimistic, and the trends of basis and spreads are confirmed. [5] - Peanut: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts. [5]