美联储9月利率决议点评：谨慎开启降息周期

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut on September 17, 2025, aligning with market expectations[4] - The median federal funds rate forecast for the end of 2025 was revised down from 3.9% to 3.6%, indicating approximately two more rate cuts expected this year[7] - The decision reflected a cautious approach within the Federal Reserve, with only one dissenting vote advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points[6] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Market Reactions - Powell emphasized a balance between employment and inflation, acknowledging rising unemployment while warning of persistent inflation risks[7] - Following the rate cut announcement, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields initially fell to a new low since April but later rebounded, indicating a hawkish interpretation of Powell's comments[10] - The U.S. retail sales in August increased by 0.6%, exceeding market expectations, suggesting ongoing economic resilience[19] Group 3: Risks and Future Considerations - Risks include potential unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, which could prompt the Fed to tighten policies again[24] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and their impact on market volatility remain a concern, particularly regarding the Israel-Palestine and Russia-Ukraine conflicts[24] - The rising public debt and its implications for future fiscal policy could pose challenges for economic stability[19]