集装箱产业风险管理日报-20250919

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The current price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures (EC) is slightly weak in oscillation. The prices of all EC contracts have declined to varying degrees. The 10 - contract price has dropped to an appropriate range but still has some downside potential. It is recommended to hold high - position short orders but not to chase short positions excessively, and to mainly observe. For the 12 - contract, low - long opportunities around 1550 - 1600 points can be focused on, and overall, the strategy is to observe or make quick trades [3]. 3. Summary by Directory EC Risk Management Strategy - Position Management: For those who have positions but with full capacity or poor booking volume and are worried about falling freight rates, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) to lock in profits, with a recommended selling range of 1250 - 1350 [2]. - Cost Management: When shipping companies increase blank sailings or the peak season is approaching, to prevent rising freight rates from increasing transportation costs, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) to determine booking costs in advance, with a recommended buying range of 1000 - 1100 [2]. Core Contradiction - The EC futures price oscillated slightly weakly. As of the close, all EC contracts declined. In the EC2510 contract, long positions decreased by 1351 to 26470, short positions decreased by 1337 to 27460, and trading volume decreased by 23795 to 23360 (bilateral). The near - month contracts have fallen to relatively appropriate levels, but are still affected by factors such as the decline in spot cabin quotes of some shipping companies and commodity sentiment. The futures price is likely to continue to oscillate or decline slightly in the short term. The 10 - contract price has fallen to an appropriate range but still has some downside potential, while the 12 - contract can focus on low - long opportunities around 1550 - 1600 points [3]. 利多解读 - On the morning of the 17th local time, the Israeli military launched a military operation in the center of Gaza City [4]. 利空解读 - Shipping companies such as CMA CGM and Evergreen continued to lower the spot cabin quotes for European lines in late September or early October. The daily changes in the EC basis showed different trends for different contracts [5]. EC Price and Spread - The closing prices of different EC contracts on September 19, 2025, showed different degrees of decline or increase compared to the previous period, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [7]. Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes - On September 29, Maersk's 20GP and 40GP total quotes from Shanghai to Rotterdam increased compared to the previous period. CMA CGM's quotes in late September decreased, and Evergreen's quotes on October 1 decreased compared to the end - of - September sailing [9]. Global Freight Rate Index - The SCFIS European route index decreased by 8.06%, the SCFIS US - West route index increased by 37.67%. The SCFI European route decreased by 12.24%, the SCFI US - West route increased by 8.27%. Other indices also showed different degrees of increase or decrease [10]. Global Main Port Waiting Time - The waiting times of ports such as Hong Kong, Shanghai, and others on September 18, 2025, changed compared to the previous day and the same period last year [16]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ship Quantity in Suez Canal - The average speeds of container ships of different sizes on September 18, 2025, changed compared to the previous day and the same period last year. The number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor decreased from 9 to 1 compared to the previous day [24].