贵金属日报：宽松靴子落地，贵金属价格持续调整-20250919

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a cautious and bullish rating for both gold and silver, and suggests shorting the gold-silver ratio at high levels while pausing on options [8][9] Core Viewpoints - After the Fed's interest rate cut, gold prices are expected to oscillate, but the financial attribute premium remains, so it's advisable to buy on dips. Silver's financial attribute premium is weakened, but its industrial attribute provides support, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. Both are likely to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [8] Market Analysis - US initial jobless claims last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years, but continuing claims remained above 1.9 million, indicating some pressure in the labor market. The US government is promoting a $5 billion mineral investment fund [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 18, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 835.34 yuan/gram and closed at 824.10 yuan/gram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 9,924.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,835.00 yuan/kg, down 0.72% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 646,031 lots, and the open interest was 395,854 lots [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 18, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.101%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10-year to 2-year spread was 0.544%, down 0.21 BP from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes on the SHFE - On September 18, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, long positions changed by 129 lots, and short positions changed by 176 lots. The total trading volume of gold contracts on the previous trading day was 485,609 lots, a change of 32.56% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, long positions changed by 2 lots, and short positions changed by -2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,305,261 lots, a change of 0.13% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 975.66 tons, down 4.29 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,205.14 tons, up 15.53 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 18, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -8.58 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -823.15 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 83.79, down 0.60% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 88.92, a change of 2.72% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On September 18, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 49,462 kg, down 13.44% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 547,182 kg, down 26.90% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,776 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 10,320 kg [7] Strategy Recommendations - Gold: Cautiously bullish, buy on dips, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 815 yuan/gram and 850 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 9,800 yuan/kg and 10,050 yuan/kg [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Pause [9]