成本支撑回落，聚烯烃偏弱震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; Cross - variety: None [3] Core View - The supply of PE is expected to increase due to device restarts, while the PP device production profit has shrunk significantly, leading to a decline in PP开工. The downstream demand is in the seasonal improvement stage of "Golden September", but the demand fulfillment rate is slow and the support is limited. The cost support has weakened as oil prices are under pressure and the external propane has corrected [2] Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures include the plastic futures main contract trend, LL East China - main contract basis, polypropylene futures main contract trend, and PP East China - main contract basis [8][11] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工 rate is 80.4% (+2.3%), PP开工 rate is 74.9% (-1.9%). PE oil - based production profit is 219.0 yuan/ton (+48.1), PP oil - based production profit is - 411.0 yuan/ton (+48.1), PDH - made PP production profit is - 247.5 yuan/ton (+55.5) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - Figures show HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawn wire East China, PP homopolymer injection molding - drawn wire East China [27][35][38] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit is - 81.1 yuan/ton (+11.0), PP import profit is - 471.1 yuan/ton (+11.0), PP export profit is 27.7 US dollars/ton (-1.4) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 26.8% (+2.6%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 51.8% (+0.5%), PP downstream woven operating rate is 43.6% (+0.5%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 61.4% (-0.1%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Figures show PE oil - based enterprise inventory, PE coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PE trader inventory, PE port inventory, PP oil - based enterprise inventory, PP coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PP trader inventory, PP port inventory [75][78][83]