农产品日报：市场购销冷清，豆粕窄幅震荡-20250919

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - For both the粕类 and玉米 sectors, the overall strategy is rated as neutral [3] 2. Core Views - The adjustment in this report is slightly higher than market expectations, with the price of US soybeans declining. Attention should be focused on the changes in the new - season US soybeans. In the Chinese market, the strengthening of Brazilian soybean premiums has increased import costs, supporting domestic soybean prices. However, the domestic soybean supply remains abundant, and downstream inventories are high. Attention should also be paid to Sino - US policy changes [2] - For corn, on the supply side, the remaining old - crop corn with traders is limited, and its price is firm. New - crop corn is gradually coming onto the market, and traders are trying to buy at lower prices. But due to the acquisition needs of deep - processing enterprises, the price of new - crop corn in Heilongjiang has slightly increased. On the demand side, feed enterprises mainly use their existing inventories and are cautious about purchasing new - crop corn, while deep - processing enterprises also hope to buy at lower prices. Attention should be paid to the listing and acquisition of new - crop corn [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data (粕类) - Futures: The closing price of the bean粕2601 contract was 2993 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (- 0.30%) from the previous day; the closing price of the菜粕2601 contract was 2470 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+ 0.41%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the spot price of bean粕 was 2980 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2910 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2930 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the spot price of菜粕 was 2620 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - Market Information: Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters expects soybean exports in September 2025 to be 753 million tons, higher than the previous estimate and last year's figure. From January to September 2025, exports are expected to reach 9563 million tons, and from October to December, 1600 million tons [1] Market News and Important Data (Corn) - Futures: The closing price of the corn2511 contract was 2177 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+ 0.74%); the closing price of the corn starch2511 contract was 2471 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+ 0.73%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the spot price of corn was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the spot price of corn starch was 2570 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market Information: Canada's 2025 wheat production is expected to be 3660 million tons, a 1.9% year - on - year increase, with an increase in both yield per acre and harvested area [3] Market Analysis - For soybeans, the US soybean price decline is due to the report adjustment. In China, higher import costs support domestic prices, but supply is abundant and downstream inventories are high [2] - For corn, the supply is in a state of transition from old - crop to new - crop, and the demand side is cautious, waiting for better prices [4][5] Strategy - The strategy for both sectors is neutral [3]