农产品日报：棉价偏弱整理，郑糖创阶段新低-20250919

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][8] 2. Core Views - Cotton: The global cotton inventory has reached a four - year low, and the supply - demand situation of US cotton is expected to improve. In China, the cotton de - stocking speed is fast, and the supply is tight at the end of the year. However, due to the good growth of new cotton, there is a strong expectation of increased production in the new year, and there is a risk of price decline if the peak season demand is not met. In the long term, the cotton price center is expected to gradually rise after the seasonal pressure [2] - Sugar: The acceleration of sugarcane crushing in Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere after the rainy season suppress the raw sugar price. In China, the domestic sugar market is affected by poor sales in August and concerns about syrup policy relaxation, and the import profit of out - of - quota sugar is high. The Indian government's decision to export sugar in the new season will also put downward pressure on global sugar prices [3][4][5] - Pulp: Overseas pulp mills have production cut news, but the supply pattern has not changed significantly. In China, there is a large amount of pulp production capacity to be put into operation in the second half of the year, and the import volume of wood pulp is expected to decline. However, the port inventory is high, and the supply pressure still exists. The demand at home and abroad is weak, and the industry profit is shrinking. The short - term pulp price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - Market News and Important Data: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,765 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton (- 0.90%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,249 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton. In August 2025, China's cotton import volume was 70,000 tons, a 40.0% increase from the previous month and a 51.6% decrease from the same period last year. As of September 11, the US net signed 42,207 tons of upland cotton this year, and China signed 998 tons [1] - Market Analysis: The international cotton supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but the short - term upward space of US cotton is limited. In China, the short - term cotton price has strong support, but there is a risk of decline during the new cotton listing period. In the long term, the cotton price center is expected to rise [2] - Strategy: Neutral. Short - term range - bound, medium - term bearish, long - term optimistic [3] Sugar - Market News and Important Data: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,474 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton (- 0.99%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,840 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. India plans to start the sugar export program in the new season, with an expected production of 34.9 million tons in the 2025/26 season [3] - Market Analysis: The raw sugar price is suppressed by the increase in production in Brazil and the Northern Hemisphere, and the domestic sugar price is affected by poor sales and policy concerns. The Indian export decision will put downward pressure on global sugar prices [3][4][5] - Strategy: Neutral. The short - term domestic driving force is still downward, but the downward space is limited after continuous decline. Treat it with the idea of shock - bottoming and waiting for a rebound [5] Pulp - Market News and Important Data: The closing price of pulp 2511 contract was 5,014 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (- 0.56%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,625 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. The import wood pulp spot market price showed a mixed trend [5][6] - Market Analysis: The supply pressure of pulp still exists, and the demand at home and abroad is weak. The industry profit is shrinking, and attention should be paid to the improvement of terminal orders in the peak season [7] - Strategy: Neutral. The current fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, and the short - term pulp price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [8]