新能源及有色金属日报：降息落地，镍不锈钢价格回落-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information is provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Report's Core View - After the end of macro - event influence, nickel prices return to the fundamental logic. With high inventories and a pattern of oversupply remaining unchanged, nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level fluctuations. Stainless steel prices show signs of stopping decline and rebounding due to nine - week consecutive inventory drops and rising material costs, and subsequent consumption peak - season demand needs to be monitored [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On September 18, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 121,690 yuan/ton and closed at 120,940 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.89% compared to the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 81,612 (- 9,122) lots, and the open interest was 55,044 (- 3,785) lots. Due to the approaching Fed interest - rate decision, the main contract fluctuated slightly around the previous trading - day's settlement price at night. After the Fed's interest - rate cut did not exceed market expectations, the price of the main contract fluctuated downward during the day, and the market focus returned to the fundamental logic of cost support and marginal changes in demand [1]. - The nickel - ore market remained calm with stable prices. Philippine mines had firm quotes. The downstream nickel - iron price was temporarily stable, domestic iron plants' profits remained in the red, and nickel - ore procurement was cautious. In Indonesia, the supply remained loose, and the Wedabay incident had little impact. The September (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price increased by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars, and the current domestic trade premium was +24, with a premium range of +23 - 24 [1]. - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,890 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price was basically stable, and the spot premiums and discounts of each brand did not change. The premium of Jinchuan nickel remained at 2,200 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained at 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse - receipt volume was 25,866 (- 275) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 228,450 (- 18) tons [2]. Strategy - It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations for single - side trading, and there are no recommendations for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On September 18, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,920 yuan/ton and closed at 12,875 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 175,834 (+ 5,708) lots, and the open interest was 132,228 (- 4,171) lots. Similar to the trend of Shanghai nickel, due to the approaching Fed interest - rate decision, the main contract fluctuated slightly around the previous trading - day's settlement price at night. After the Fed's interest - rate cut did not exceed market expectations, the price of the main contract fluctuated downward during the day, and the market focus returned to the fundamental logic of cost support and marginal changes in demand [3]. - Downstream buyers remained on the sidelines, and spot trading was light. The price remained stable. The expected pre - National Day holiday stocking demand offset the impact of the decline in the futures market. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,250 (+ 0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 13,250 (+ 0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 315 to 615 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 954.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy - A neutral stance is recommended for single - side trading, and there are no recommendations for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].