Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, non - ferrous commodities experienced an expected correction, and the aluminum spot discount quickly recovered. The supply side remained unchanged, and consumption showed positive signs. Although the social inventory performance was not satisfactory, attention should be paid to macro - influences, and the consumption in the seasonal peak season is expected to strengthen both at home and abroad [6]. - The domestic and overseas spot prices of alumina are running weakly. The supply surplus situation persists, and the social inventory continues to increase. The cost support of the alumina industry is relatively favorable, and the further decline space is limited. However, the surplus pattern is difficult to change, and there is currently no rebound momentum [6][7]. - Aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - season. The cost side supports the price, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [8]. Summary by Related Content 1. Important Data Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,780 yuan/ton, a change of - 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount of East China aluminum was - 30 yuan/ton, a change of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,700 yuan/ton, and the spot premium and discount changed by 50 yuan/ton to - 110 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,730 yuan/ton, a change of - 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium and discount changed by 15 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On September 18, 2025, the Shanghai aluminum main contract opened at 20,890 yuan/ton, closed at 20,785 yuan/ton, a change of - 195 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,900 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,705 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 227,638 lots, and the position was 250,178 lots [2]. Inventory - As of September 18, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 638,000 tons, a change of 0.1 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 74,465 tons, with no change from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 513,900 tons, a change of 30,125 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On September 18, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,990 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,960 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,030 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,180 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,185 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 325 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On September 18, 2025, the alumina main contract opened at 2,944 yuan/ton, closed at 2,931 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a change amplitude of - 0.34%. The highest price was 2,977 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,916 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 433,801 lots, and the position was 306,866 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On September 18, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,000 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 16,200 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,400 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 71,400 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,800 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,341 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 159 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, non - ferrous commodities corrected as expected. The supply side remained stable, and consumption showed positive signs. The production of downstream processing enterprises such as aluminum rods, aluminum plates, strips, and foils continued to increase month - on - month, and the downstream operating rate increased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the macro - influence, the frequency of US interest rate cuts, and inflation data in the later stage. The consumption in the seasonal peak season is expected to strengthen both at home and abroad, and attention should be paid to the destocking rhythm of aluminum ingots and rods [6]. Alumina - The in - plant price of 10,000 tons of alumina purchased in Qinghai was 3,150 yuan/ton, equivalent to an ex - factory price of 2,970 yuan/ton in Shanxi. India closed a deal of 30,000 tons at FOB 331 US dollars/ton, and Indonesia closed a deal of 27,000 tons at FOB 318 US dollars/ton. The supply surplus situation persists, and the social inventory continues to increase. The cost support of the alumina industry is relatively favorable, and the further decline space is limited. However, the surplus pattern is difficult to change, and there is currently no rebound momentum [6][7]. Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - season. The futures price fluctuates with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum and raw aluminum remains tight, and the cost side supports the price. The spread between the AD2511 - AL2511 contracts is - 460 yuan/ton. The November contract has become a peak - season contract, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [8]. 3. Strategy Unilateral - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9]. Arbitrage - Positive spread arbitrage for Shanghai aluminum [9].
氧化铝现货价格偏弱运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-19 03:08