铜价回落，下游采购情绪有所回暖

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report Since the Fed's interest rate meeting, copper prices have declined due to the implementation of interest rate cuts, but other fundamental factors have not changed significantly. In the long term, the Fed may continue to cut interest rates, so copper prices are expected to strengthen again in the future. It is recommended to conduct buy hedging on dips around the 79,000 - 79,300 yuan/ton level. Arbitrage should be postponed, and short put options at 78,000 yuan/ton are suggested [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures Market: On September 18, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,950 yuan/ton and closed at 79,620 yuan/ton, a -1.17% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 79,680 yuan/ton and closed at 79,660 yuan/ton, a 0.10% increase from the afternoon close [1]. - Spot Market: The spot premium of electrolytic copper stabilized. The average price of SMM 1 copper was 79,880 - 80,100 yuan/ton, with a premium of 70 yuan/ton (unchanged) over the main contract. The buying and selling sentiment both improved. It is expected that downstream procurement will continue on Friday, and the premium may remain stable [2]. 3.2 Important Information Summary - Economic Data: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years. However, the number of continued claims remained above 1.9 million, indicating some pressure in the labor market [3]. - Industrial Dynamics: The US government is promoting a $5 - billion mineral investment fund. If established, it will be the US government's first direct participation in large - scale mineral transactions [3]. 3.3 Mine - End Situation - In August 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2.76 million tons, a 7.81% month - on - month increase and a 7.4% year - on - year increase. The import value was $7.50821 billion, an 8.39% month - on - month increase and an 18.00% year - on - year increase [4]. - Canadian copper company Ivanhoe Mines agreed to a $500 - million investment from Qatar, giving the Qatar Sovereign Wealth Fund a 4% stake in the company [4]. 3.4 Smelting and Import Situation - In August 2025, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products were 112,916 tons, a 7.7% year - on - year increase. The cumulative exports from January to August were 1.046963 million tons, a 9.7% year - on - year increase [5]. - In August 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 430,000 tons, a 2.6% year - on - year increase. The cumulative imports from January to August were 3.54 million tons, a 2.1% year - on - year decrease [5]. - In August 2025, China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) output was 1.301 million tons, a 14.8% year - on - year increase. In September, due to maintenance and anode copper supply shortages, production is expected to decline significantly [5]. 3.5 Consumption Situation In August 2025, China's copper product output was 2.222 million tons, a 9.8% year - on - year increase. The cumulative output from January to August was 16.598 million tons, a 10.7% year - on - year increase [5]. 3.6 Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Situation - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,175 tons to 148,875 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 822 tons to 32,469 tons [6]. - On September 15, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 148,900 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons from the previous week [6]. 3.7 Price and Basis Data The report provides data on spot premiums, different types of copper prices, inventory, warehouse receipts, basis spreads, and arbitrage ratios from September 12, August 20 to September 19, 2025 [26][27][28].