新能源及有色金属日报：消费端仍有支撑，碳酸锂库存继续去化-20250919

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The short - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is good with continuous inventory reduction, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. After the resumption of production at the mine end and the weakening of consumption, the market may decline [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 18, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 73,120 yuan/ton and closed at 72,880 yuan/ton, a - 0.74% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 502,269 lots, and the open interest was 281,411 lots, down from 294,624 lots the previous day. The current basis was - 150 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 39,354 lots, a change of 120 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, the battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 72,700 - 74,200 yuan/ton, a change of 300 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 70,600 - 71,800 yuan/ton, also a change of 300 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 830 US dollars/ton, a change of 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] - Downstream material factories are more active in point - price procurement when prices fall and return to cautious waiting when prices rebound. As it is the peak demand season, downstream factories have pre - National Day stocking needs and are more willing to buy at relatively low prices [1] - Lithium carbonate produced from spodumene accounts for over 60% of the market supply, while that from lepidolite has dropped to 15%. In September, supply and demand are both increasing, but demand is growing faster, and there may be a temporary supply shortage [1] - According to the latest weekly data, the weekly output increased by 400 tons to 20,363 tons, with small increases in production from spodumene, mica, and salt lakes. The weekly inventory decreased by 981 tons to 137,531 tons. Downstream inventory continued to increase, while inventory in the intermediate links and smelters decreased significantly [2] Strategy - The futures market fluctuated widely with a decline followed by a rise. Although the mine - end disturbances have weakened, there are still news - related impacts. Supported by the peak consumption season, the short - term supply - demand pattern is good, and inventory is continuously decreasing, so the market has some support. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and may decline after the resumption of mine production and weakening of consumption [3] - For unilateral trading, short - term range operation is recommended, and selling hedging can be done at high prices [3] - There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]