光大期货金融期货日报-20250919

Report Industry Investment Rating - Stock Index: Bullish [1] - Treasury Bonds: Volatile [1] Core Viewpoints - The market fluctuated throughout the day, with all three major indices declining in the afternoon. Over 4,400 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets closed lower, and the trading volume exceeded 3 trillion yuan. The economic data for August showed a slight decline in demand - side indicators such as consumption and investment, indicating that the economy is still on the path to bottom - out and stabilize. The current market mainly reflects long - term policy expectations, and the impact of current fundamental factors is limited [1]. - In the long run, the Federal Reserve is likely to start an interest - rate cut cycle in September, and the market expects three interest - rate cuts within the year. The interest - rate cut channel for A - shares may also open, which is beneficial for the medium - and long - term stock index of equity assets [1]. - The implementation of the parenting subsidy system is expected to directly increase the income level of residents. In the future, the central bank's purchase of national debt to raise funds for the central government and the introduction of more inclusive fiscal support programs will be an important way to stabilize and boost China's inflation [1]. - The liquidity - driven market is expected to continue, but it shows obvious structural characteristics, and the rotation of market sectors may accelerate [1]. - Recently, the bond market has been affected by a large - scale redemption of bond funds. In August, the CPI turned negative year - on - year, while the PPI bottomed out and rebounded. The growth of social financing declined as expected, the real - economy financing demand was weak, and the phenomenon of residents moving their deposits continued. In the short term, with the complex fundamental situation, there is no clear turning - point signal in the bond market, and it is still expected to move in a wide range [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - IH: From 2,956.2 on September 17, 2025, to 2,912.4 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 43.8 points or 1.48% [3]. - IF: From 4,553.2 on September 17, 2025, to 4,448.2 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 105.0 points or 2.31% [3]. - IC: From 7,252.4 on September 17, 2025, to 6,985.4 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 267.0 points or 3.68% [3]. - IM: From 7,547.0 on September 17, 2025, to 7,454.8 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 92.2 points or 1.22% [3]. Stock Indices - Shanghai Composite 50: From 2,952.8 on September 17, 2025, to 2,912.8 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 40.0 points or 1.35% [3]. - CSI 300: From 4,551.0 on September 17, 2025, to 4,498.1 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 52.9 points or 1.16% [3]. - CSI 500: From 7,260.0 on September 17, 2025, to 7,199.9 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 60.2 points or 0.83% [3]. - CSI 1000: From 7,554.8 on September 17, 2025, to 7,476.4 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 78.4 points or 1.04% [3]. Treasury Bond Futures - TS: From 102.46 on September 17, 2025, to 102.41 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 0.046 points or 0.04% [3]. - TF: From 105.89 on September 17, 2025, to 105.82 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 0.07 points or 0.07% [3]. - T: From 108.16 on September 17, 2025, to 108.08 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 0.075 points or 0.07% [3]. - TL: From 115.88 on September 17, 2025, to 115.62 on September 18, 2025, a decrease of 0.26 points or 0.22% [3]. 2. Market News - Market Trend: The market rose in the morning and then declined in the afternoon. All three major indices closed lower. Over 4,400 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets closed lower, and the trading volume exceeded 3 trillion yuan. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.06%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.64% [5]. - Industry Sectors: The automobile service, high - bandwidth memory, tourism, and CPO sectors led the gains, while the precious metals, non - ferrous metals, diversified finance, and securities sectors led the losses [5]. - Popular Concepts: Tourism stocks strengthened against the trend, with Yunnan Tourism and Qujiang Cultural Tourism hitting the daily limit. CPO and other computing - hardware stocks were active, with Decentel and Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable hitting the daily limit. Semiconductor chip stocks rose first and then fell, with Microport and Saiwei Micro - Electronics rising more than 10%. On the downside, gold stocks declined collectively, with Xiaocheng Technology falling more than 8%; securities and fintech stocks adjusted, with DZH falling more than 8% [5]. 3. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report presents the historical price trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM futures contracts, as well as the corresponding stock - index trends [7][8][9][10][11]. Treasury Bond Futures - It shows the historical price trends of treasury - bond futures contracts, the yields of treasury bonds, basis, inter - delivery spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates [14][17][19]. Exchange Rates - The report includes the historical trends of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as the trends of forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and cross - currency exchange rates [23][24][25][27][29].