中辉有色观点-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: High - level correction [1] - Copper: High - level correction [1] - Zinc: Under pressure [1] - Lead: Rebound [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: High - level oscillation [1] - Lithium carbonate: Wide - range oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The long - term bullish logic of gold and silver remains unchanged, despite short - term adjustments. Copper's long - term trend is positive, while zinc shows a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation in the medium - long term. Aluminum prices are under pressure, and nickel prices are also facing downward pressure. Lithium carbonate will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short term due to strong terminal demand [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the probability of rate cuts in 2026 is lower than expected, and gold and silver prices have significantly adjusted [2]. - Basic Logic: US employment data has improved month - on - month, and many countries have followed the Fed in cutting interest rates. In the short term, the market is selling on the news, leading to a correction in gold prices. In the long term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the short term, the selling on the news is common, but the volatility is expected to be limited. Silver has support around 9730. Wait for it to stabilize before making long - position purchases. The long - term upward trend of gold and silver remains unchanged [4]. Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper has been oscillating and testing the support of the lower moving average [6]. - Industrial Logic: The supply of copper concentrates is tight. High copper prices have suppressed demand, and inventories have continued to accumulate. Pay attention to the strength of domestic policies and the performance of the peak season [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: The Fed's interest rate cut was in line with expectations. The market has fully priced in the rate cut. Copper has oscillated and corrected, testing the support of the lower moving average. The long - term logic remains unchanged. Wait for copper to stop falling and stabilize before re - entering the market. For the medium - long term, be optimistic about copper [7]. Zinc - Market Review: Shanghai zinc has been under pressure and testing the support of the 22,000 - yuan level [8]. - Industrial Logic: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates was abundant. In September, domestic smelter maintenance increased, and zinc ingot production was expected to decrease. Domestic zinc ingot social inventories have accumulated, while LME zinc inventories have continued to decline. The demand in September is expected to be good, but downstream buyers are purchasing on dips [9]. - Strategy Recommendation: The Fed's interest rate cut was in line with expectations. In the short term, LME zinc has risen and then fallen. Shanghai zinc is oscillating weakly and may test the support of the lower integer level. In the medium - long term, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [10]. Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices have been under pressure, and alumina has shown a relatively weak trend [12]. - Industrial Logic: Overseas interest rate cuts were in line with expectations. In August, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year and month - on - month. Inventories have accumulated. The demand side has shown a step - by - step recovery. The supply of bauxite in Guinea is abundant, and the supply pressure of alumina has increased [13]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to go long on Shanghai aluminum on dips in the short term, paying attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises [14]. Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices have been under pressure, and stainless steel has rebounded and then fallen [16]. - Industrial Logic: Overseas interest rate cuts were in line with expectations. Domestically, the supply of refined nickel has a large surplus pressure, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. The inventory of stainless steel has continued to decline, and the production volume in September is expected to increase. Pay attention to the improvement of terminal consumption during the peak season [17]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel in the short term, paying attention to the improvement of terminal consumption [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2511 opened low and moved lower, with the decline narrowing at the end of the session [20]. - Industrial Logic: The supply side has continued to release incremental production. Terminal demand is in the peak season, and the inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased. The price of lithium carbonate has support at the bottom and will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short term [21]. - Strategy Recommendation: Adopt a low - buying strategy in the range of [72300 - 73500] [22].