光大期货能化商品日报-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - All energy - chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC, are expected to show a volatile trend [1][3][4][6][8][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - On Thursday, WTI October contract closed down $0.48 to $63.57 per barrel, a 0.75% decline; Brent November contract closed down $0.51 to $67.44 per barrel, a 0.75% decline; SC2511 closed at 488.8 yuan per barrel, down 7.5 yuan per barrel, a 1.51% decline [1]. - Ukraine increased attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, with two Russian refineries attacked and a petrochemical plant on fire. The EU plans to phase out Russian gas and oil imports by the end of 2027, opposed by Hungary and Slovakia [1]. - In August, Russia's seaborne oil product exports increased 8.9% from July to 9.44 million tons due to refinery maintenance completion and increased fuel production. After the Fed's interest - rate hike, oil prices will remain volatile [1]. 3.1.2 Fuel Oil - On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the SHFE closed down 1.24% at 2798 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2511 closed down 1.07% at 3410 yuan per ton [3]. - As of September 17, Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory decreased by 111.8 million barrels (14.21%) week - on - week; Fujeirah's fuel oil inventory decreased by 170.5 million barrels (24.03%) week - on - week [3]. - Although the autumn refinery maintenance season may tighten the low - sulfur fuel oil supply in Asia, the market will remain well - supplied before October. The high - sulfur market is supported by stable demand and weak refining margins, but supply is still abundant. The prices of FU and LU will follow the cost - end crude oil fluctuations [3]. 3.1.3 Asphalt - On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2511 on the SHFE closed down 0.35% at 3427 yuan per ton [3]. - This week, the shipment of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises increased by 14.6% week - on - week; the capacity utilization rate of 69 modified asphalt enterprises reached 20.2%, a 1.7% week - on - week and 3.6% year - on - year increase, hitting a three - year high [3]. - Supply is expected to decline slightly in the remaining weeks of September. Demand in the north is supported by good weather, while the south faces increased rainfall. Considering the continuous losses of non - quota refineries, supply pressure is limited. With the arrival of the peak demand season, asphalt prices may rise, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and demand fulfillment [3]. 3.1.4 Polyester - TA601 closed at 4666 yuan per ton, down 0.98%; EG2601 closed at 4268 yuan per ton, down 0.67%. PX futures closed at 6684 yuan per ton, down 1.3% [4]. - Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak, with an average sales rate of 40% - 50%. A 300,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Inner Mongolia plans to shut down for maintenance from October 10 for 20 - 30 days; a 600,000 - ton/year plant in Xinjiang is restarting; two US MEG plants with a total capacity of 380,000 tons/year have shut down for about a month [4]. - As of September 18, the overall ethylene glycol operating load in mainland China was 74.93%, up 0.02% from the previous period. PX supply has recovered, and downstream TA has new maintenance, so PX prices are expected to fluctuate with oil prices. With the increase in TA maintenance in the fourth quarter and the rebound in the peak demand season, TA fundamentals are expected to improve. For ethylene glycol, effective supply recovery in October depends on the restart of Satellite Petrochemical. The port inventory is expected to remain low, but the far - month supply is abundant, and the downstream demand improvement is less than expected, with a strong expectation of basis correction [4]. 3.1.5 Rubber - On Thursday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2601 fell 310 yuan per ton to 15,570 yuan per ton; the NR main contract fell 290 yuan per ton to 12,300 yuan per ton; the butadiene rubber BR main contract fell 175 yuan per ton to 11,415 yuan per ton [6]. - This week, the operating load of domestic tire enterprises' semi - steel tires was 74.58%, up 0.28 percentage points from last week and down 2.17 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating load of Shandong tire enterprises' full - steel tires was 64.96%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week and up 7.57 percentage points from the same period last year [6]. - After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the macro - environment weakened, and rubber products led the decline. Typhoons brought limited rainfall to domestic rubber - producing areas, and production is expected to recover. Tire operating rates were flat week - on - week, and automobile sales in the fourth quarter are estimated to reach 8.38 million, a 3% increase for the year, with less sales pressure. Rubber supply and demand are both increasing, and rubber prices will fluctuate with the macro - environment [6]. 3.1.6 Methanol - On Thursday, the spot price in Taicang was 2247 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 2090 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was $264 - 268 per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was $324 - 329 per ton [6]. - Downstream, the formaldehyde price in Shandong was 1075 yuan per ton, the acetic acid price in Jiangsu was 2500 - 2560 yuan per ton, and the MTBE price in Shandong was 5160 yuan per ton [6][8]. - Recently, many domestic methanol plants have been under maintenance, resulting in a temporary low supply. Overseas, Iranian plants have high operating loads, and although there are short - term shutdowns, shipping volumes are stable, and arrivals are expected to remain high. The Xingxing plant has restarted, and the supply - demand gap in East China is narrowing, with port inventory expected to peak. Methanol prices are expected to reach a phased bottom [8]. 3.1.7 Polyolefins - On Thursday, the mainstream price of East China PP was 6780 - 6950 yuan per ton. Oil - based PP had a loss of 481.35 yuan per ton, coal - based PP had a profit of 399.87 yuan per ton, methanol - based PP had a loss of 980.67 yuan per ton, propane - dehydrogenated PP had a loss of 839.47 yuan per ton, and externally - sourced propylene - based PP had a loss of 411.47 yuan per ton [8]. - For PE, HDPE film prices were 8023 yuan per ton, up 8 yuan per ton from last week; LDPE film prices were 9639 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan per ton; LLDPE film prices were 7447 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan per ton [8]. - Supply will remain high and volatile. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak demand season, orders are picking up, and the industry's operating rate is rising. Polyolefin demand is marginally improving, supply changes are limited, the supply - demand gap is narrowing, but the cost side is under pressure, and polyolefin prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [8]. 3.1.8 PVC - On Thursday, the East China PVC market partially declined, with calcium - carbide - type 5 material at 4720 - 4850 yuan per ton and ethylene - type material at 4900 - 5050 yuan per ton; the North China PVC market was stable, with calcium - carbide - type 5 material at 4660 - 4820 yuan per ton and ethylene - type material at 4840 - 4980 yuan per ton; the South China PVC market was range - bound, with calcium - carbide - type 5 material at 4850 - 4900 yuan per ton and ethylene - type material at 4920 - 5020 yuan per ton [8][9]. - Domestic real - estate construction has stabilized and rebounded, but is still weak year - on - year. The operating rates of pipes and profiles are expected to increase slightly. Supply remains high and volatile, domestic demand recovers slowly, and exports will weaken due to India's anti - dumping policy. Although the basis and inter - month spread are high, inventory has been transferred from refineries to the market, and the total inventory pressure is large. However, this has been priced in. The market is now trading on the "anti - involution" concept, and short - term PVC prices may rebound but with limited upside [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, basis rate, spot price, and futures price of various energy - chemical products, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, polyethylene, polypropylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and soda ash, as well as their changes and historical quantiles [10]. 3.3 Market News - In August, Russia's seaborne oil product exports increased by 8.9% month - on - month to 9.44 million tons due to the completion of refinery maintenance and increased fuel production. Exports from Baltic ports increased by 12.3% to 5.326 million tons, those from Black Sea and Azov Sea ports increased by 3.6% to 3.392 million tons, and those from Arctic ports decreased by 22.6% to 30,700 tons [12]. - Kuwait's oil minister, Tariq Al - Roumi, expects an increase in oil demand after the US interest - rate cut, especially in the Asian market. He also believes that new sanctions on Russia will have a positive impact on oil prices [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents charts of the closing prices of main contracts for various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle chips [14][15][18][20][22][26][28]. 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - Charts show the basis of main contracts for various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [29][35][38][41][42]. 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides charts of inter - period contract spreads for fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [44][46][49][52][53][57][59]. 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - Charts display inter - variety spreads, including crude oil internal - external spreads, B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [61][63][68][69]. 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report includes charts of production profits for ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [71][73]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team consists of several analysts: - Zhong Meiyan, the assistant director of the research institute and director of energy - chemical research, has over ten years of experience in futures and derivatives research [77]. - Du Bingqin, an analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, has in - depth research on the energy industry [78]. - Di Yilin, a rubber and polyester analyst, is good at data analysis [79]. - Peng Haibo, an analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, has experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading [80].