Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-19 05:00Group 1: Macro and Market Overview - The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points as expected, and the market is now focused on the future interest - rate path and economic data, especially the labor market [1][2][4] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest decline in nearly four years [1][2][4] - The RMB exchange rate is expected to oscillate around the current level, and the policy guidance signal of the RMB central parity rate needs to be closely watched [2] Group 2: Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures declined due to the fulfillment of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, but the overall upward trend remains unchanged due to the interest - rate cut cycles in both China and the US [4] - The small - and medium - cap stock index futures are relatively stronger in the short term, with limited downside space [4] Group 3: Treasury Bonds - The Treasury bond futures closed down, and the yield of most spot bonds rose. The market is waiting for the central bank's attitude [5] - The new 2Y and 7Y bonds issued last week have been included in the deliverable bonds, but have not significantly affected the futures price [5] Group 4: Container Shipping - The container shipping index (European line) futures prices oscillated slightly downward. The near - month contracts have fallen to a relatively appropriate level, but may continue to decline [6][7] - It is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract and wait and see, and look for low - buying opportunities in the 12 - contract at 1550 - 1600 points [7] Group 5: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices are in a high - level oscillation stage after the Fed's interest - rate cut. The market focus is on the Fed's easing expectations, personnel adjustments, and tariff policies [8] - It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips and hold existing long positions cautiously [9] Group 6: Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The copper price declined due to the Fed's interest - rate decision. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia had a production reduction due to a mudslide [11] - The trading strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options [11] Zinc - The zinc price was weak. The supply is in an oversupply state, and the demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see for the internal - external reverse arbitrage or sell out - of - the - money call options [14] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The prices of nickel and stainless steel were affected by the market and were weak. The fundamentals have no obvious changes [14][15] Tin - The tin price declined slightly. The supply is tight in the short term, and it is recommended to wait for long - entry opportunities [15][16] Lead - The lead price was in a high - level oscillation. The supply is relatively weak compared to the demand, and it is expected to maintain high - level oscillation in the short term [16][17] Group 7: Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil were weak. The overall steel market is still in the process of inventory reduction, and the price is expected to oscillate after digesting the short - term impact of the Fed's interest - rate cut [18] Iron Ore - The iron ore price oscillated around 800. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate based on fundamentals [19][20] Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal price stopped falling and rebounded, and the second - round price cut of coke was fully implemented. It is not recommended to short coking coal, and the industry can consider hedging opportunities at low basis [21] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - The ferrosilicon and ferromanganese prices were affected by the news of the increase in the standard of submerged arc furnaces in the metallurgical industry. The short - term price is expected to rise, and it is recommended to try long positions [22] Group 8: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The crude oil price fell slightly. It is expected to continue to oscillate within a narrow range in the short term, and the probability of a short - term correction has increased [24][25] LPG - The LPG price declined. The supply is controllable, and the demand is lack of clear drivers, so it is expected to oscillate [25][26] PTA - PX - The PX - PTA prices are expected to oscillate strongly. The polyester demand is expected to improve seasonally, but the PTA processing fee repair is limited [27][28][29] Methanol - The methanol price is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to reduce long positions and hold short - put options [29][30] PP - The PP price is supported by the cost side, but the demand is in the "peak season without peak" situation. The downward space is limited, and a rebound may occur if the device shutdown increases [31][32] PE - The PE price is in a weak supply - demand pattern, with limited upward drivers and limited downward space, and is expected to oscillate [34][35] Pure Benzene and Styrene - The pure benzene and styrene prices are weak, with high inventory and low valuation. They are expected to oscillate and follow the cost side [36][37] Fuel Oil - It is recommended to short the cracking profit of fuel oil. The export volume is decreasing, and the demand is stable [37][38] Asphalt - The asphalt price is affected by the increase in supply and the inability to release demand. The inventory structure is improving. It may have a last chance to rise this year [39] Rubber and 20 - Rubber - The rubber prices fell. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is stable in the short term. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [40][41][42] Group 9: Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda Soda Ash - The soda ash price is under pressure due to the high - level supply expectation. The demand is stable, and the supply - demand pattern is strong supply and weak demand [43] Glass - The glass price lacks a clear trend. The supply - demand pattern is strong supply and weak demand in the near term, and factors such as supply ignition and coal price need to be followed [44][45] Caustic Soda - The caustic soda price is weak in the spot market. The downstream demand is stable, and the supply fluctuates due to maintenance [46] Group 10: Pulp - The pulp price is expected to oscillate in the short term. The macro - level interest - rate cut has a positive impact, but the fundamentals lack clear drivers [46][47] Group 11: Propylene - The propylene price declined. The supply increased and the demand decreased, and the price followed the decline of PP [49][50] Group 12: Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The live pig price declined. The supply is still high in September, and it is recommended to short at high prices [51] Oilseeds - The soybean market is affected by Sino - US negotiations. The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the downstream demand is stable [51][53] Vegetable Oils - The vegetable oil prices declined due to the uncertainty of the US bio - fuel policy. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [53][54] Soybean No. 1 - The soybean No. 1 futures price rebounded slightly. The new - season soybean price is expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended to hold short - hedge positions [54] Corn and Starch - The corn and starch prices are expected to be weak as new grains are gradually coming onto the market [53][56]