宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025年9月19日）-20250919

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the short - term view is to expect a sideways movement, the medium - term view is an upward trend, and the intraday view is a slightly weak sideways movement. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach due to the short - term strong willingness of long - position holders to close their positions after the interest rate cut [1][3]. - For copper, the short - term view is a sideways movement, the medium - term view is an upward trend (with a correction in doc 5 to a sideways movement), and the intraday view is a slightly weak sideways movement. It is also recommended to take a wait - and - see approach as the market cashed in on pre - interest - rate - cut benefits, and the industry is entering the peak season which may support the price [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Price Movement: The gold price opened high and then declined last night and then moved sideways. After the September interest rate cut, the short - term capital market showed a reverse trend of cashing in on the benefits, with the US dollar index bottoming out and rising, the gold price rising and then falling, and the US stock market oscillating at a high level [3]. - Market Pricing: The gold market had fully priced in three interest rate cuts within the year in early September and had a large increase, leading to a strong willingness of short - term long - position holders to close their positions [3]. - Fed's Stance: According to the dot plot, the Fed is highly divided, with some believing there will be no more interest rate cuts this year and others expecting two more cuts [3]. - Key Level: Keep an eye on the resistance at the $3700 level for New York gold [3]. Copper - Price Movement: The copper price decreased with a reduction in positions yesterday afternoon and maintained a sideways movement last night, with the open interest continuously declining, which is considered a result of the market cashing in on pre - interest - rate - cut benefits [5]. - Macro Aspect: After the September FOMC meeting, the interest rate was cut by 25 basis points, and the dot plot shows that most officials expect another 50 - basis - point cut by the end of 2025, which is in line with market expectations [5]. - Industry Aspect: In September, the copper price rose, and downstream buyers were more inclined to wait and see. Technically, LME copper reached the upper limit of the previous sideways range, leading to a strong willingness of short - term long - position holders to close their positions. As the short - term macro disturbances decrease and the industry enters the peak season, downstream demand may support the futures price. After the short - term futures price fell below the 80,000 - yuan mark with a reduction in positions, the market attention declined, and the price is expected to move sideways [5].