股市科技?向占优，债市承压

Report Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, for different financial derivatives, the outlooks are as follows: - Stock Index Futures: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [7] - Stock Index Options: Oscillating [8] - Treasury Bond Futures: Oscillating [8] Core Viewpoints - Stock Index Futures: The technology sector has a short - term advantage. Short - term adjustments are mainly due to capital reallocation, while the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the possibility of configuring IM long positions, as technology stocks have a comparative advantage [1][7] - Stock Index Options: Trading is driven by intraday reversals. It is recommended to use covered strategies and closely monitor volatility changes. When volatility rises abnormally, the selling side of options can temporarily exit the market [2][8] - Treasury Bond Futures: The impact of the stock - bond seesaw effect is weakening. In the short term, the central bank's attitude towards the capital market is supportive for the short - end, while the long - end yield of bonds is still affected by risk appetite and policy expectations. Short - term attention can be paid to long - end arbitrage opportunities and the opportunity for the yield curve to steepen [3][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: The market first rose and then declined. The STAR Market once soared, and the technology sector continued to attract capital. However, the loss - making effect in the afternoon increased, and value stocks led the decline [1][7] - Key Phenomena: After the Fed's interest - rate meeting, commodities were generally weak, and the slightly hawkish stance boosted the US dollar, putting pressure on commodities and value stocks. Brokerages and stock - trading software were sluggish, and funds avoided areas with concentrated chips. The proportion of stocks outperforming the Wind All - A Index decreased, indicating that funds were flowing into relatively crowded areas, causing downward pressure on weak stocks [1][7] - Operation Suggestion: Hold IM [7] Stock Index Options - Trading Volume: The trading volume in the options market was 21.04 billion yuan, a 62.60% increase from the previous trading day, driven by intraday reversals [2][7] - Market Characteristics: The positive delta exposure of sellers decreased, and there were signs of a slight rebound in the skewness index and a significant increase in the ratio PCR. The implied volatility of some products decreased significantly at the end of the session, presumably due to the impact of intraday put - buying profit - taking [2][8] - Operation Suggestion: Use covered strategies [8] Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally rose, with a larger increase at the long - end [3][8] - Capital Situation: The central bank's net injection of 195 billion yuan did not ease the tight capital situation in the inter - bank market. The DR001 weighted average interest rate rose above 1.5%, which was negative for the short - end of the bond market. The decline in the equity market had limited impact on boosting the bond market sentiment, and the long - end yield rose more [3][9] - Operation Suggestion: Adopt a cautiously oscillating trend strategy. For hedging strategies, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels. For basis strategies, focus on long - end arbitrage opportunities. For curve strategies, pay attention to the opportunity for the yield curve to steepen [9] 2. Economic Calendar - The report provides the economic data of different regions from September 15 to September 19, 2025, including China's social consumer goods retail sales, industrial added value, the eurozone's economic sentiment index, the US retail sales, import price index, federal funds rate, and Japan's CPI [10] 3. Important Information and News Tracking - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in September, and the dot - plot median shows that there is still room for a 50bp interest - rate cut within the year. The Bank of England maintained its policy interest rate unchanged in September and slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening, warning of the risk of a wage - price spiral [11] 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report includes data monitoring of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the given text [12][16][28]