工业硅、多晶硅日报（2025 年 9 月 19 日）-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On September 18, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2511 closing at 8,905 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.22%, and the position decreased by 621 lots to 285,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot was 9,483 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 rebounded to 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 180 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2511 closing at 53,205 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.49%, and the position decreased by 3,400 lots to 123,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon materials rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon materials also rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 705 yuan/ton. There are intertwined positive factors for industrial silicon, and the market has staged a phased recovery. The conference proposed to set limits on the comprehensive energy consumption of polysilicon and eliminate backward production capacity through capacity replacement, and establish a red-yellow-green light warning system for subsequent supply-demand regulation. The overall regulatory intensity is more moderate than expected. New capacity expansion is restricted, but existing capacity indicators are not directly cancelled. In September, production continued to rise, and the inventory pressure of polysilicon remained, putting pressure on prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research View - Industrial silicon and polysilicon both fluctuated weakly on September 18. There are positive factors for industrial silicon, and the market has staged a phased recovery. The regulatory measures for polysilicon are more moderate, but the inventory pressure remains, suppressing prices [1]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures Settlement Price: Industrial silicon's main contract increased by 55 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract increased by 30 yuan/ton. Polysilicon's main contract decreased by 285 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract decreased by 245 yuan/ton [2]. - Spot Price: Most of the spot prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon remained unchanged, with the spot discount of industrial silicon widening and that of polysilicon narrowing [2]. - Inventory: Industrial silicon's warehouse receipts decreased by 25 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 1,400 tons. Polysilicon's warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the total social inventory remained unchanged, but the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 29,000 tons [2]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Industrial Silicon and Cost - End Price: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. - Downstream Product Prices: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][13][15][16][17][18][19]. - Inventory: Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and changes in weekly inventory, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [21][22][23][24][25]. - Cost - Profit: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [27][28][29][31][32][33].