光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 9 月 19 日）-20250919

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Urea futures prices are expected to continue the range - bound trend with a slightly weak short - term trend. The supply has increased, demand is weak, inventory has accumulated, and there may be further price cuts before the National Day. Attention should be paid to double - festival stocking, exports, international market dynamics, and macro - sentiment [1]. - Soda ash futures prices are short - term weak with limited fundamental drivers. The market will fluctuate significantly following industry capacity changes and external factors. Attention should be paid to new capacity implementation, anti - involution policy implementation progress, and macro - sentiment [1]. - Glass futures prices will enter a wide - range oscillation phase in the short term with weak intraday sentiment. There may be phased performance following macro - sentiment, policies, and peak - season demand. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, overall commodity market trends, and glass demand [1]. Summary by Catalog Research Viewpoints - Urea: On Thursday, the urea futures price was weakly volatile, with the main 01 contract closing at 1670 yuan/ton, down 0.65% day - on - day. The spot market declined slightly. The supply increased with a daily output of 19.97 million tons, up 0.41 million tons day - on - day. Demand was weak, with the sales - to - production ratio in the mainstream areas mostly between 10% - 30%. The enterprise inventory increased by 2.88%. The overall supply - demand situation is weak [1]. - Soda ash: On Thursday, the soda ash futures price was weak, with the main 01 contract closing at 1306 yuan/ton, down 2.03%. The spot market was basically stable. The industry's operating rate decreased by 1.76 percentage points, and the output dropped by 2.02%. The demand was stable, and the enterprise inventory decreased by 2.33% compared to last Thursday but increased by 0.49% compared to Monday [1]. - Glass: On Thursday, the glass futures price was weak, with the main 01 contract closing at 1208 yuan/ton, down 2.19% slightly. The spot market continued to warm up. The daily melting volume was stable at 16.02 million tons. The demand was relatively active, and the glass factory inventory decreased by 1.10%, but the demand pattern did not change significantly [1]. Market Information - Urea: On September 18, the urea futures warehouse receipts were 8188, down 80 from the previous trading day, with 49 valid forecasts. The daily output was 19.97 million tons, up 0.41 million tons from the previous day and 0.31 million tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 85.34%, down 2.85 percentage points from the same period last year. The enterprise inventory as of September 17 was 116.53 million tons, up 3.26 million tons or 2.88% from last week [4][5]. - Soda ash and Glass: On September 18, the soda ash futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 35, with 5770 valid forecasts; the glass futures warehouse receipts were 754, down 286 from the previous trading day. The soda ash industry's operating rate for the week ending September 18 was 85.53%, down 1.76 percentage points week - on - week. The output was 74.57 million tons, down 1.54 million tons or 2.02% week - on - week. The glass market average price on September 18 was 1166 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton day - on - day. The industry's daily output was 16.02 million tons, unchanged day - on - day. The glass sample enterprise inventory as of September 18 was 60.908 million heavy boxes, down 1.10% week - on - week and 18.56% year - on - year [7][8]. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are provided, including the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures contracts, as well as the price spreads between different contracts and the spot price trends of urea and soda ash. All chart data sources are iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [10][20]. Research Team Introduction - The research team members include Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on sugar industry research; Zhang Linglu, an analyst responsible for urea, soda ash, and glass futures research; and Sun Chengzhen, an analyst engaged in the fundamental research of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [24].